Bitcoin is the undisputed dominant force in the financial world. A rapid change in financial seriousness has shifted the spotlight from decentralized digital assets to the US treasury. As liquidity becomes the defining force behind every major market move, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has emerged as the true engine that can power risky assets.
Why Bitcoin’s Cycles Matter Less as Federal Cash Levels Shift
The most important chart for 2026 is not Bitcoin, but the US Treasury checking account. Crypto analyst Kyle Chassé has done just that noted that the reason crypto has come to a standstill is due to the government’s liquidity problems. Meanwhile, the TGA just rose to $1 trillion, creating a huge liquidity vacuum in the cycle. When the Treasury replenishes its funds, it withdraws dollars from the broader financial system.
However, to avoid a recession in 2026, the government must empty the account again. Emptying the TGA means putting $150 billion to $200 billion back into the banking system. Moreover, quantitative tightening (QT) has officially stopped, meaning the government has finished draining liquidity and asset prices continue to follow their course. liquidity.
Analyst Theunipcs revealed that the third interest rate cut of 2025 has been released, bringing the target interest rate to the lowest level in almost three years. The Fed also announced a new liquidity injection of about $40 billion per month in Treasury purchases. This policy The pivot occurs immediately after BTC recovered from a 35% correction, which is the deepest pullback BTC has seen in this cycle so far.
At the same time, the most conservative trillion-dollar asset managers like Vanguard and Charles Schwab are pushing cryptocurrency products available to their tens of millions of users for the first time. This is not the time to be bearish, but to aggressively buy the dips.
Weekly support remains as Bitcoin looks for a relative trend reversal
A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, marked that Bitcoin is currently trading only about 18% above 2021 highs compared to the NASDAQ. Currently, the BTC/NASDAQ ratio is testing the Weekly Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a level that provides support. Initially, BTC saw a clear break in this ratio in 2024 and early 2025, but momentum has since stalled as stock prices continued to rise, fueled by the AI technology rally.
According to the expert, the momentum of the technology stocks is starting to cool, at least temporarily, and it will be a while to see if this ratio returns in favor of BTC. Because of the rotation signalBTC is already showing signs that the index, like the Russell 2000 (Small Caps), is starting to outperform as tech stocks cool off.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Editing process for bitcoinist is focused on providing thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We have strict sourcing standards and every page is carefully reviewed by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
#Bitcoin #takes #seat #Treasury #cash #flow #cantmiss #chart #heres #Bitcoinist.com