Bitcoin suffers worst Q4 since 2018 crash with nearly 22% plunge

Bitcoin is heading for its worst fourth quarter since 2018, down nearly 22% as macro pressures and weakening demand weigh on prices.

Bitcoin (BTC) will end the fourth quarter of 2025 with a loss of almost 22%, marking its weakest fourth-quarter performance since the 2018 market collapse.

The sharp decline has rattled traders and analysts alike as on-chain signals, macro pressures and waning speculative activity point to a fragile phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin posts weakest fourth quarter in seven years

The latest quarterly return data for BTC collected by Coinglass shows it is currently down almost 22%. Since 2016, the flagship cryptocurrency has typically posted gains in the fourth quarter, with this period often used to recover from summer weakness or extend bullish momentum.

That pattern has held steady in recent years, with BTC surging nearly 57% in Q4 2023 and nearly 48% in Q4 2024, helped by ETF optimism and institutional inflows.

The only comparable weakness in the fourth quarter occurred in 2018, when Bitcoin lost more than 42% during an extended bear market. Although the current decline is smaller in magnitude, the structure is similar. According to Coinglass data, 2025 started with an 11.8% decline in the first quarter, followed by a nearly 30% recovery in the second quarter and a modest gain of just over 6% in the third quarter. This series reflects previous cycles where the recovery did not materialize from mid-year to year-end, signaling demand fatigue rather than a sudden shock.

The concentration of losses in the fourth quarter is also striking. Previous quarterly gains suggested Bitcoin held up quite well for most of 2025, but the year-end breakdown signals a shift in market behavior. Historically, such declines have occurred in the fourth quarter as speculative interest faded and new capital struggles replaced previous inflows, a pattern now reflected in the on-chain data.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $89,000, up just over 1% in the past 24 hours, but down over 2% in the past two weeks. The price action has remained choppy in recent weeks, with the asset moving within a range of $85,000 to $90,000 over the past seven days. Although the cryptocurrency is up nearly 6% over the past month, the cryptocurrency remains down about 7% year-over-year and nearly 29% below its all-time high around $126,000, which was reached in early October.

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On-Chain data and macro signals paint a cautious picture

Market observers on CryptoQuant have largely seen the fourth-quarter decline as a continuation of a broader cooldown, rather than a sudden collapse. Analyst GugaOnChain wrote that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, citing the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and a negative spread between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages.

Activity on the chain has also declined, with the number of daily transactions falling from about 460,000 to 438,000 and highly active addresses falling to about 41,500, indicating reduced participation from large merchants.

Further insight from XWIN Research Japan shows that Bitcoin is move after an earlier revival due to a ‘stop-and-go’ phase. The company linked some of the weakness to global macro conditions, including the Bank of Japan’s December 19 rate hike to 0.75%.

While this move is widely expected, continued uncertainty over future rate hikes has dampened risk appetite, especially for yen-funded transactions related to crypto markets.

Furthermore, the leverage figures suggest that much of the excess speculation has already been cleared, without meaningful rebuilding despite price fluctuations. XWIN also pointed out that the Coinbase Premium Index has improved from deeply negative levels but has not yet remained positive, indicating that strong US-led spot demand remains contained.