Bitcoin price rises 1%, while Tom Lee says BTC could still fall 50%

Bitcoin price is up more than 1% over the past 24 hours, trading at $111,331 as of 4 a.m. EST, while daily trading volume fell 31% to $50.47 billion.

That BTC price increase occurred while Tom Lee, the well-known chairman of BitMine, says that even as Bitcoin becomes more popular with major investment firms, sharp declines of 50% or more are still possible.

“Just holding cryptocurrencies on the balance sheet does not guarantee long-term performance,” he explained, reminding everyone of Bitcoin’s turbulent past.

⚡️TOM LEE: BITCOIN IS NOT IMMUNE TO A 50% CRASH

He warns that even with support from Wall Street $BTC could still experience deep declines, just like the stock market. pic.twitter.com/xOgzIb6YY0

— Muntbureau (@coinbureau) October 24, 2025

Bitcoin has experienced heavy fluctuations in recent weeks. First it shot up to almost $126,000 and then fell below $110,000 before bouncing back. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s position above $110,000 shows that the market is still confident for now.

Still, major investors have pumped more than $1.2 trillion into Bitcoin via major exchanges over the past year, making it the largest crypto entry point in the world. Even as other cryptocurrencies gain traction, Bitcoin remains the top choice for traditional investors, especially in the US

Bitcoin On-Chain Data: Activity Remains High Despite Warnings

On-chain signals provide a clearer picture of what is happening behind the price. Bitcoin remains the leader in terms of network activity and overall demand.

Trading volume for on-chain perpetuals (crypto derivatives traded directly on the blockchain) reached an all-time high in October, with more than $1 trillion in notional value exchanged this month alone. This indicates strong interest from both institutional and retail traders, even as prices fluctuate up and down

Still, some red flags are visible. The number of Bitcoin transfers between wallets and exchanges has risen during price declines, which is usually a sign that some holders are looking to take profits or limit their losses.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Source: CryptoQuant

While many long-term holders remain put, new buyers step in every time Bitcoin falls below key support levels. This suggests that the market remains active, with buyers and sellers responding quickly to price movements.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC Shows a Bearish Tilt

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation zone after a sharp decline from recent highs near $126,000. The price remains above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $108,445.78, which acts as a key support level. The 50-day SMA is $114,194.62, now just above the last price, creating a ‘resistance zone’.​

BTCUSD analysis source: Tradingview

Technical indicators send mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.34, which indicates that the market is neutral, meaning that buyers and sellers are evenly matched for the time being.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line, a sign that bearish momentum could continue if buyers do not intervene.

Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 25.47, indicating that the trend is present but not overwhelming, and the market can easily tilt in either direction.

The chart also shows clear horizontal support and resistance zones. Sellers have repeatedly pushed Bitcoin down from the $125,000-$126,000 area, as indicated by red arrows. On the downside, strong support can be found just above $108,000 and around $105,000, close to the 200-day SMA.

A drop below these levels would be a warning of deeper corrections, and as Lee says, strong corrections should never be ruled out, even in bullish cycles.

Conversely, if the price breaks above the resistance at $114,200 and then $118,000, Bitcoin could look to retest the recent highs. But without a strong catalyst, the path to higher levels looks challenging.

For now, technical and on-chain data show Bitcoin holding its ground, but the bulls face a tough road ahead. While the market waits for its next big catalyst, staying above $108,000 is crucial. If not, even Wall Street’s favorite cryptocurrency could see a sharp decline before bouncing back.

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