Bitcoin prices fell fractionally ahead of key US inflation data tomorrow, with traders growing increasingly uncertain about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
BTC fell to a low of $102,457.33 in the last 24 hours, but has recovered and is trading at $104,555.73 as of 5:52 a.m. EST. According to figures from the US State Department, more than $317 million in long leveraged positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours Mint glass.
BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
That caused traders to focus on the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, which will be released tomorrow. It will be an important indicator of what we can expect from the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Market expectations for a December rate cut have been weakened by the CME FedWatch tool It shows the odds fell to 67.9%, down from 85% last week, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that additional cuts are “not a foregone conclusion.”
Higher-than-expected inflation could dampen hopes for further easing, while softer inflation could revive risk appetite in the crypto markets.
POWELL SAYS A RATE REDUCTION IN DECEMBER IS NOT A COMPREHENSIVE CONCLUSION.
BEARISH STATEMENT… pic.twitter.com/XvrRQQavr6
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) October 29, 2025
Adding to the uncertainty is a Wall Street Journal report Earlier today it was said that the US central bank has become increasingly divided over a rate cut in December.
Contract asking what the Fed’s decision will be in December (Source: Polymarkt)
Traders on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket remain optimistic that a rate cut will happen next month. In a contract asking what the Fed’s decision will be, Polymarket traders have estimated a 72% chance that a 25 basis point cut will occur.
Bitcoin Price Tests Major Technical Barrier as Morgan Stanley Says Profitability
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin price is trying to overcome a major barrier at the $105,795 resistance level.
Daily chart for WBTC/USD (Source: GeckoTerminal)
That price level corresponds to the 9 and 20 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which currently act as dynamic resistance levels for BTC. As such, converting the resistance level into support could lead to a bullish reversal of the market leader’s current trend. This could then result in a rise to $110,830 in the short term.
However, failure to close above the $105,795 resistance level within the next 48 hours could result in a pullback to the nearest support at $99,680.
Technical indicators on the daily chart, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), show that buyers are slowly making a comeback, but they still need to overcome the $105,795 barrier before they can spark a rally.
As Bitcoin tries to overcome a major technical barrier, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Denny Galindo has done just that urged investors to take profits in preparation for a crypto winter.
“We are currently in the fall,” he says. “Autumn is the time for the harvest. So it is the time when you want to take your profit. But the debate is how long this autumn will last and when next winter will start.”
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