Bitcoin Price Analysis: What is the Most Likely BTC Scenario Over Christmas?

Bitcoin remains under pressure in the short term as the price continues to consolidate below key resistance levels. Although volatility has compressed, multiple technical and on-chain signals suggest the market is approaching a decisive phase.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, BTC has recently experienced a rejection at its key descending trendline, which has consistently acted as dynamic resistance during recent recovery attempts. Each rally to this trendline was accompanied by selling pressure, reinforcing its technical significance.

At the same time, Bitcoin is above a critical demand zone between $82,000 and $84,000, which has served as a reliable support area during the recent decline. This zone continues to absorb the downward pressure, preventing a deeper continuation of the downtrend for the time being.

The broader daily structure suggests Bitcoin is caught between falling resistance and strong horizontal support, resulting in a bullish environment. A decisive daily close above the descending trendline would be necessary to shift momentum in favor of buyers, while a clean breakdown below the $82K region would expose Bitcoin to greater correction risk.

The 4-hour chart

Zooming in on the four-hour time frame, BTC’s recent price action shows weakening bullish momentum after multiple failed recovery attempts. The asset recently attempted to move higher along a rising intraday trendline but was stopped near the $89K-$90K region and formed a local lower high.

This rejection led to a collapse under the short-term structure, confirming the move as a failed breakout rather than a sustained reversal. Since then, Bitcoin has continued to push lower highs, keeping the short-term bearish pressure intact.

As long as the price remains below the four-hour descending trendline, upward attempts are likely to be corrective. A sustained recovery above $90,000 would be needed to negate the bearish structure and open the door for a broader recovery.

Analysis in the chain

By Shayan

The taker buy-sell ratio continues to reflect a market environment dominated by sell-side aggression. Throughout the recent price action, the ratio has remained below the neutral equilibrium, indicating that sell orders are consistently outweighing buy orders in the market. This behavior suggests that rallies are met with active distribution rather than strong demand, limiting upside attempts.

Even during short-term recoveries, the ratio has failed to bring about a return to positive territory. These short responses emphasize reactive buying rather than initiative-driven demand, reinforcing the view that buyers lack conviction at current levels. As long as the taker buy-sell ratio remains suppressed, Bitcoin’s structure favors consolidation or further downturn rather than pure bullish continuation.