Bitcoin Price Analysis: What BTC Needs to Do to Regain Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just above the $100,000 mark after experiencing a sharp rejection at the $116,000 resistance. Although volatility has cooled, the structure is showing signs of potential weakness. Buyers have yet to show strong signs of re-entry, and with the recent rise in open interest, the market remains cautious.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, BTC has broken below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located around $110,000, indicating that short-term momentum has shifted bearishly. The price is currently hovering around the key USD 100,000 level, which acted as support during recent corrections.

The RSI is also around 36, which indicates that the market is approaching oversold territory, but not quite there yet. There is a lower risk of continuation if buyers fail to defend this zone, with the next major support set to be around $95,000. Overall, the daily structure looks tough and recovery above the $108,000-$110,000 zone is needed to turn the outlook bullish again.

The 4-hour chart

Within the span of four hours, the market recently broke out of a rising wedge pattern and retested it as resistance before falling further. Momentum remains weak and attempts to break out of the $100,000 zone have failed so far.

The price remains just above the support block of $100,000 to $101,000, but the structure remains vulnerable. Any loss from this level could lead to a rapid decline towards the next demand area around $95,000. The RSI on the 4H is also near 41, showing some room for further downside, but not aggressively oversold.

Sentiment analysis

Open interest

Open interest has taken a big hit lately, falling from over $45 billion to less than $33 billion in recent weeks. This breakdown reflects a broad deleveraging, likely due to the liquidation of aggressive long positions. Such a reset often takes away the necessary anxiety, but the fact that OI has not yet recovered indicates that traders are still not at risk.

The lack of new leverage in the market means participants are waiting for clearer price action before re-engaging. This sentiment is consistent with the choppy price behavior and shows that the market is still tense despite the technical support zones holding firm for the time being.