Technically, the market is approaching a key decision zone: either a sustained breakout above the current ceiling opens the door to another move higher, or a rejection here triggers a corrective phase towards recently established support levels.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, BTC is trading around the $95,000 resistance band, which coincides with the lower bound of a broader supply area and the 100-day moving average. This zone has acted as a price ceiling since November and is the main level currently being tested.
Below current levels, an ascending structure has formed from the $80,000 demand zone, creating a series of higher lows. The recent advance has pushed the asset from that base to the current resistance area without any meaningful daily pullback, leaving the short-term $90,000 level as the first notable support layer in case of a rejection.
The daily RSI has also cooled off from the recent overbought figures, but remains above the midline, which is consistent with a market that is in the early or midtrend and not at a mature top. As long as the higher-low structure of the December bottom holds, the broader daily timeframe bias remains constructive, even as short-term volatility builds around resistance.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart highlights the recent breakout from an ascending triangle structure. The price continued to compress between flat resistance around $95,000 and the pattern’s rising trendline for several weeks. This resistance has now been marginally breached and the market is consolidating just above the previous range high, potentially targeting the next $100,000 region.
Still, momentum on the 4-hour RSI points to a downtrend, reflecting short-term waning strength and raising the risk of a corrective phase or at least a period of sideways consolidation.
If such a correction occurs, $93,000-$94,000 represents the immediate breakout retest zone, where stability would maintain the integrity of the bullish breakout. Further ahead, the $90,000 region marks the previous consolidation band and mid-range support, a logical area for a deeper but still healthy pullback within the prevailing uptrend.
Analysis in the chain
The measure ‘Supply in profit’ (%) currently sends an important cyclical signal. Recently, the percentage of circulating BTC making a profit dropped to a level similar to that observed when the spot price was below $30,000 earlier in the cycle. This happened despite the current price being in the $90,000+ region.
Such a deep reset in profitability at a much higher nominal price indicates that a large portion of the coins have changed hands or unrealized gains have been compressed during the recent correction. Historically, similar resets have often preceded new advances over the medium term, as weaker hands were washed away and a more robust base emerged.
The measure is now recovering towards the mid-70% range, indicating profitability is improving again, but has not yet reached the extreme levels (above 95%) typically associated with late-stage euphoria. This combination can be interpreted as a constructive backdrop on the chain, consistent with the early stages of a potential new rally, provided that the main technical resistance on the chart is eventually absorbed.
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