Bitcoin Price Analysis: Expectations for a Drop to $100,000 Rise as Bulls Struggle to Regain Momentum

Bitcoin is once again struggling to find momentum after an aggressive decline a few weeks earlier. This current price behavior reflects the hesitation of both bulls and bears, with traders keeping a close eye on whether BTC can hold its key support levels or if a deeper correction is on the way. While the macro structure is still bullish, short-term technical indicators are starting to show cracks.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin is hovering around a crucial intersection of the major channel’s rising trendline and the 200-day moving average near $108,000. The 200-day moving average stands as dynamic support, but the price has fallen below the 100-day MA, around $114,000, indicating waning bullish momentum.

The RSI remains weak around 40, and the run of lower highs since the all-time high in September confirms the short-term downward trend. If this current support zone is definitively broken, sellers could drag the price towards the critical $100,000 level. On the other hand, to change sentiment, the price needs to regain $114K with strong follow-through.

The 4-hour chart

Zooming in on the 4H chart, Bitcoin is in a tight range between $108,000 and $116,000, just above the rising trendline. This area has been tested several times and forms a short-term floor. However, each upswing becomes weaker, indicating buyer exhaustion.

The RSI is flat on this time frame, hovering around the mid-40s, indicating a lack of directional conviction. If the price breaks below this trendline, expect a sharp decline to retest the key support zone around $100,000. On the other hand, a move back above $110,000 on volume could return momentum to the supply zone of $114,000 to $116,000.

Analysis in the chain

Short-term holder SOPR (30-day moving average)

From an on-chain perspective, the Short-Term Holder SOPR has fallen below 1, indicating that some recent buyers are realizing losses. This generally indicates a cautious market, as short-term holders are less likely to sell at a loss unless forced to.

The recent SOPR spikes also show that profitability spikes have been consistently sold through, reflecting weak conviction during recent upswings. Until SOPR can recover and stay above 1, near-term rallies may still be cashing out. This reinforces the importance of spot support zones as they are now key battlegrounds between patient buyers and uncertain holders.