Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC’s Next Move Will Depend on This Key Level

The US-China trade deal and the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut have eased macroeconomic pressures, creating favorable conditions for risky assets. Still, Bitcoin’s next move will depend on whether it can confirm a breakout above the 100-day MA or hold the 200-day MA as structural support.

Until one side of this equilibrium is broken, the market will remain in accumulation and consolidation mode, with a compression in volatility likely preceding the next major momentum move.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin fluctuates between the 100-day MA of almost $114,000 and the 200-day MA of around $109,000, creating a well-defined equilibrium zone. The repeated rebounds of the 200-day MA indicate that the $108,000 – $109,000 area continues to attract institutional demand, while the $114,000 – $116,000 range serves as a strong distribution zone.

This structure emphasizes the current state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers in the market. The ongoing stabilization phase could represent an accumulation pattern, as evidenced by the clustered price action between the two major moving averages.

A confirmed daily close above the 100-day MA would likely trigger a breakout to $120,000 – $122,000, while a breakdown below $108,000 could re-expose the institutional demand zone of $102,000 – $104,000.

Improving macro sentiment due to the FOMC’s dovish policy pivot and the US-China cooperation framework could support a bullish continuation if on-chain and volume metrics confirm accumulation.

The 4-hour chart

The four-hour time frame reinforces the range-bound nature of Bitcoin’s recent behavior. The price has repeatedly reacted from the $108,000 – $109,000 support zone, forming higher lows and attempting to reclaim the short-term structure. However, the $115,000 – $116,000 resistance band remains a ceiling that has capped multiple upside attempts.

This setup depicts a symmetrical consolidation within a bullish structure, suggesting that volatility increases before a potential breakout occurs.

A bullish breakout above $116,000 could mark a structural shift towards $120,000 – $122,000, while the failure to hold the $108K area would confirm a deeper retest towards the $102K liquidity pocket.

Until either side of the range is breached, the market is expected to fluctuate between these levels, with low volatility ahead of the next expansion.

Analysis in the chain

By Shayan

Bitcoin Active Addresses provides an important signal about market participation and network health. In recent months, the number of active addresses has gradually decreased, while the price of Bitcoin maintained its position near record highs. Historically, such a decline in on-chain activity often reflects market fatigue or short-term distribution, especially after extended rallies.

The current level of activity, while moderate, remains above the 2024 accumulation base level, implying that the market is not experiencing a complete capitulation.

Periods of reduced address activity near key support levels have often preceded large-scale accumulation and trend reversals, as seen in late 2023 and mid-2024.

If active address growth stabilizes while price remains within the $108,000 – $110,000 support range, this would strengthen the case for an accumulation-driven bottom formation, consistent with the macro environment of increased global liquidity and improving investor sentiment following the Fed rate cut.