Bitcoin Flashes Red: Can BTC Fall Back to the $37K LTH Zone?

Bitcoin is trading near $108K after falling below the STH cost basis. Analysts expect support at $37,000 LTH as retail sales spikes and whales pile up.

Bitcoin is trading around $109,000, with modest movement over the past day. The weekly chart continues to show a broader pullback, and recent data suggests the pressure could continue.

Analysts are keeping an eye on historical support levels, especially those related to on-chain cost metrics.

Realized price levels are shown

Bitcoin has fallen below the realized short-term holder price (STH), which stands at $113,250. The realized price for the long-term holder (LTH) is much lower, almost $36,910. In previous cycles, when BTC lost the STH level, it often fell to the LTH price. This pattern has become visible during major corrections.

Ali Martinez commented:

Historically, when Bitcoin $BTC is below the STH Realized Price, it also tends to fall below the LTH Realized Price, which is now at $37,000. pic.twitter.com/HM4RuypxXp

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 23, 2025

Although BTC is still well above the $37,000 range, traders are monitoring this area as a possible target if the selling deepens. So far there is no indication that the LTH zone is threatened, but the setup is consistent with previous downward phases.

Retail trading on Binance is rising

Data from CryptoQuant shows an increase in retail sales activity. On October 22, approximately 13,000 BTC were sold on Binance, worth approximately $1.4 billion. This marked the second major wave in one week, following a similar event on October 17.

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Amr Taha wrote,

“This marks the second major selling wave in a week.”

The STH realized limit, which reflects the value held by short-term holders, fell from $15.2 billion to $2.2 billion in eight days. This indicates that many have exited their positions, locked in losses or shifted assets. At the same time, long-term portfolios appeared to increase their holdings, a pattern often seen during retail-driven dips.

The main demand zone remains stable

Bitcoin is still trading above a long-standing support zone between $108,000 and $110,000. This level has served as a basis for previous market slowdowns. The 21-week EMA is near the same range, which may be contributing to the current support.

On the daily chart, the price is showing early signs of a higher low, marked by an upward trend from recent candles. Rekt Capital said this is just a “very initialdevelopment. A strong move back above $114,000 is needed to shift momentum. For now, BTC remains within a certain range.

Traders look at CPI and macro news

Short-term moves may depend on upcoming data. Ted said,

“If the CPI is higher than expected, you can expect more pain.”

A softer inflation reading could help markets take risks. Technical traders elsewhere noted a bullish divergence and a golden cross on the 12-hour chart. After rejection, Bitcoin is still at the lower end of its recent range, near $114,500.

Meanwhile, some large BTC holders are moving their money into spot ETFs, seeking better access to traditional financing and avoiding taxable events. Analysts at VanEck called this part of a “liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset” in a recent note.