Bitcoin price has fallen 7% to $83,237 over the past 24 hours, with JPMorgan analysts explaining that the latest weakness in the cryptocurrency is driven more by short-term market sentiment and liquidity conditions than the recent decline in the US dollar.
Despite the dollar losing ground, Bitcoin has failed to stage its usual inverse rally, highlighting its current behavior as a risk-sensitive asset rather than a traditional hedge against currency weakness.
JPMorgan analysts note that the recent decline in the U.S. dollar has been driven primarily by short-term capital flows, rates and shifts in investor sentiment, rather than any meaningful change in the Federal Reserve’s growth prospects or policy outlook.
Although the dollar index (DXY) has fallen about 10% over the past year, strategists point out that interest rate differentials have swung in the US’s favor since the start of the year. This shows that dollar weakness may be temporary, similar to last April’s brief decline, with stabilization expected as the US economy shows resilience.
A weaker dollar can’t boost Bitcoin’s gains, but there’s a reason for that, says JPMorgan
Dollar falls but Bitcoin flat: JPMorgan signals structural shifts in crypto correlations. Historic ‘digital gold’ narrative tested as traditional safe haven behavior disappears.…
—Dr. Efi Pylarinou (@efipm) January 29, 2026
Bitcoin remains tied to risk sentiment
JPMorgan further states that Bitcoin’s underperformance highlights how investors currently perceive the asset. Rather than functioning as a store of value like gold, Bitcoin continues to trade in line with broader risk sentiment and global liquidity trends.
This became clear after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and Chairman Jerome Powell took a hawkish stance, which weighed on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. In contrast, gold and other hard assets have rallied amid the same dollar weakness, benefiting from their established role as macro hedges.
JPMORGAN: #BITCOIN CAN’T GET IN DESPITE 10% DROP IN THE DOLLAR INDEX
JPMorgan Private Bank notes that while the US Dollar Index has fallen 10% over the past year, #Bitcoin has fallen by 13% and breaks this #usual inverse correlation with dollar weakness. Analysts say the dollar… pic.twitter.com/yfmQU6uiEv
— CryptOpus (@ImCryptOpus) January 29, 2026
Looking ahead, JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to lag behind traditional inflation and currency hedges until macro fundamentals, such as shifts in growth expectations or interest rate dynamics, take over. For now, subdued trading volumes and the upcoming expiration of crypto options continue to limit upside momentum for BTC.
Bitcoin breaks key support at $85,000 as RSI signals oversold levels
Bitcoin price has fallen below a key support zone around $85,000, signaling a bearish breakout on the 4-hour chart. This move comes after a period of sideways consolidation within this key support area, indicating that previous levels of buyer interest were not sustained. The outbreak is accompanied by a sharp price drop to $83,397, highlighting increased near-term selling pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 23.27, entering deep oversold territory. This suggests that while sellers are dominant, the market may be due for a temporary rebound or consolidation, although the prevailing trend remains bearish until support levels are regained. Historically, similar breaks below major support zones have often led to accelerated downward moves, meaning traders should be cautious about further declines.
BTCUSD Chart Analysis. Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin faces a short-term downside
Resistance to previous price congestion appears to be near $87,500-$88,000, which could act as a short-term ceiling if a corrective rebound occurs. The chart also indicates a longer-term price target above $95,000, but reaching this level would require a significant reversal in momentum and regaining previously lost support.
For now, the combination of a bearish breakout, oversold RSI and inability to hold the support zone positions Bitcoin as vulnerable to further downside in the near term, while highlighting that any rebound could be met with strong selling pressure.
Overall, the technical picture is in favor of sellers, with the key support zone now acting as a potential reference point for monitoring market reactions. Traders should pay attention to RSI recovery signals and price action around the broken support to identify potential reversal opportunities or continuation of the downtrend.
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