Bitcoin faces more downsides as the model points to a bear market bottom at $74,000

New model highlights $87,000 and $74,000 as major BTC downside targets, both now within reach based on on-chain activity.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $94,000 on Friday, hitting its lowest point since early May and erasing more than $1 trillion from the overall crypto market valuation since October.

This sharp decline has now led investors to question the depth of the current downturn, with a new analytical model suggesting a potential bear market bottom at $74,000.

Market under pressure

Market technician Axel Adler Jr. said earlier today that its valuation model identifies two key downside indicators: $87,000 and $74,000. He described these levels are the key areas to monitor during this phase, arguing that activity in the chain now places both thresholds firmly within reach.

Fellow analyst Egrag Crypto compared the current market rhythm of the 2017 patterns. He pointed out that Bitcoin is completing its seventh dip in the cycle, noting that in both cycles the declines narrowed before a sharp increase occurred. Still, that view clashes with the short-term caution of others who believe the flagship cryptocurrency must first establish itself after the latest selloff.

Meanwhile, Rekt Capital warned that BTC needs a weekly close above the 50-week EMA to maintain a positive long-term structure. If that figure were lost, the risk of a broader recession would increase. The concerns are reinforced by comments from experts such as Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, who said as much reduced her own position after Bitcoin fell below $97,000, her predefined exit point.

The downturn led to significant liquidations, with data showing $1.2 billion in leveraged trading positions eliminated within 24 hours, affecting more than 240,000 merchants. The largest liquidation took place on the HTX exchange, worth $44 million.

Differing views on the road ahead

Today’s drop comes after a week of steady pressure, with Bitcoin’s price hovering around $95,400 at the time of writing, marking a 7% drop in 24 hours and a 13% drop in the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko. The broader market also followed suit, with Ethereum falling around 11% and numerous altcoins posting double-digit losses.

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Since Bitcoin’s rejection at $107,000, a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows has emerged. Furthermore, the on-chain charts show dense activity around $95,900, but weak support between $95,000 and $82,000, raising the possibility of a quick move if the current bottom breaks.

Broader factors also determine sentiment. There have been ongoing liquidity issues, as noted earlier today quote everything from retail depletion to capital shifting into AI-related stocks.

For now, traders are keeping an eye on the same thresholds: $95,000, $87,000 and $74,000. Whether the market stabilizes or continues to slide may become clear in the coming days as volatility remains high and confidence continues to fluctuate.