On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain has pointed out how data could indicate that the latest Bitcoin decline is part of a deeper bear market progression, rather than the eventual capitulation. Bitcoin has broken below both the true market average and the average ETF cost basis. In a new post on X, Checkonchain discussed the recent bearish action in the Bitcoin price. As the chart below shared by the analytics firm shows, this drop has pushed the cryptocurrency below two key on-chain cost basis levels. The first level Bitcoin fell below was the ETF Cost Basis, which corresponds to the average inflow price of US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Previously, the asset had remained above the line since the second half of 2024. It was a close call in the last quarter of 2025, but the level ultimately acted as a cushion of support. This time, however, the price went straight through the line. After the ETF cost basis was broken, the next level Bitcoin lost was the True Market Mean, a metric that tracks the average purchase price of the economically active BTC supply. The break also left the majority of active investors in the asset in a state of net unrealized loss for the first time since 2023. Also read: Shiba Inu’s fate depends on this level of support, analyst warns. While the price drop has clearly caused a lot of pain in the market so far, it may not be enough, as Checkonchain has noted: “the underlying data suggests this is a progression deeper into the bear, and not the eventual capitulation.” The analytics company has listed a number of statistics that point to this. First, spot ETFs have been experiencing negative net flows lately, but while the outflows have been significant, they still lack the character associated with the panic exodus seen at the end of a cycle. Likewise, on-chain losses have seen an increase since the market crash occurred, but they have also not yet reached a level that can be considered reflective of a true capitulation event. Finally, futures market data suggests that traders are still trying to hit the bottom. Checkonchain has described these conditions as “a regime in which sustained lows rarely occur.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike in Two Years. This speculation by futures traders has led to massive liquidations on the various exchanges. In the past day alone, long Bitcoin bets worth $50 million have been liquidated as the price has seen a swing from around $79,000 to levels below $76,500, according to CoinGlass data. In total, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has witnessed a flush of $185 million in long positions within this window. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,100, down almost 14% in the past week. Featured image of Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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