Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ Returns: Why BTC Could Fall to $30,000 Next

Ali Martinez points to a rare three-day signal that historically appeared just before Bitcoin’s last bear market collapse.

A major technical signal that foreshadowed the final capitulation phase of previous Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets is flashing again.

According to chartist Ali Martinez, a “death cross” could be confirmed on the three-day chart in late February, potentially pushing BTC to $40,000 or even $30,000.

The Death Cross Pattern and What History Shows

Martinez be to the three-day chart as a crucial time frame for understanding Bitcoin’s macrostructure, noting that the interaction between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on this chart reliably signaled the last major downward move since 2014.

“The deathcross between these two moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg of a bear market,” the trader wrote.

After the 2013 high, Bitcoin fell more than 72% before the death cross was printed in December 2014, after which it fell another 52%. After the 2017 peak, the death cross appeared in November 2018, just before an eventual 50% drop. The signal emerged again in May 2022, after the 2021 top, leading to an additional 45% decline.

Bitcoin recorded a new all-time high (ATH) in October 2025 when it rose above $126,000, but the current price, which had recovered to just over $66,000 at the time of writing after previously losing around $4,000 in just a few hours, is almost 48% below that ATH.

With a potential death cross expected in late February, Martinez warns that if history repeats itself even partially, a further 30% drop would take Bitcoin near $40,000, while a 50% drop could take it to $30,000.

However, the market observer was quick to note that there were no guarantees that the price declines would occur, even though the current structure is consistent with historical conditions that led to the last major downward moves before the macro bottoms formed.

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Market reaction and divergence within the chain

Bitcoin is currently down around 2.5% in the last 24 hours and over 4% in the last week. It has also lost nearly 27% of its value over the past month, a decline exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a temporary global tariff of 10% (later upgraded to 15%) after the country’s Supreme Court struck down many of the previous tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under a 1977 emergency law.

As seen during past rate-related volatility, the impact on Bitcoin was not immediate but only came when the old futures markets opened. It also led to a coordinated bearish push in the futures market, according to data from analyst Axel Adler Jr. to show The taker’s sales volume increased to $2.3 billion in one hour, accompanied by forced long liquidations of approximately 1,247 BTC worth over $81 million.

Santiment data confirmed the Liquidation Cascade, noting that open interest fell to $19.5 billion, less than half of its January peak, leading to skyrocketing negative sentiment, and the Bitcoin market entering “FUD mode.”