Bitcoin Cycle Shift? Analyst estimates a 55-65% chance of Green 2026

Analysts see a green 2026 likely if BTC makes strong monthly closes above $105,000 and has $90,000 support.

Bitcoin’s price climbed above $97,000 on January 14, reaching its highest point since November.

This move occurred when a well-known historical price pattern showed a marked deviation, leading analysts to debate whether the fundamental structure of the market is changing.

A deviation from the historical rhythm

According to analyst Egrag Crypto, for more than a decade, Bitcoin’s annual price candles followed a simple, repeating sequence: three consecutive green (up) years followed by a single red (down) year. This pattern was consistent with the four-year halving cycle, where the year after a halving was typically bullish.

Egg noted that this cycle has already broken that rhythm. The order from 2023 to 2025 was Green, Green, Red, which is a departure from the expected Green, Green, Green, Red pattern of previous cycles. The market watcher estimated a 55% to 65% probability of 2026 ending in the green, with the 2025 red candle seen as a cool-down rather than a broader turn.

That view depends on affirmative signals, including strong monthly closes above $105,000, price stability above a macro band around $90,000, and longer-term momentum strength. A red 2026, which Egrag placed at 35-45%, would indicate a prolonged consolidation rather than a crash, with wider margins and slower progress.

The debate echoed comments from chartist PlanB, who wrote on X that the four-year cycle should not be confused with the stock-to-flow model. He argued that while the year after the halving typically performs well, 2025 has clearly broken this pattern.

PlanB added that stock-to-flow tracks average prices over a cycle, not tops or bottoms, noting that the current cycle’s average is around $90,000, well above the previous cycle’s $34,000.

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Price action and holder behavior

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at just under $97,000, up about 2% on the day, with a weekly gain of almost 8% and up about 12% in the past month, according to CoinGecko data.

The price rose from just under $90,000 to $98,000 within days, reclaiming several former resistance zones, now analysts like Ted Pillows to look the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 as a technical checkpoint after the asset reclaimed the $95,000 region.

Short-term investors remain more reactive. Darkfost reported that when BTC recovered to $97,000, more than 40,000 BTC in profits were made. sent to single-day exchanges, indicating caution following the late-2025 correction.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s market share has surged above 57% while most major altcoins lagged, boosting its relative strength during the recovery.