Bitcoin Crash Below $104,000, But Analysts Say Huge Rebound From $117,000 Could Still Take Hours

Bitcoin short sellers may regret their bets as Wedson warns that a quick rebound to $117,000 is possible due to short squeeze pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $104,000 on Friday, hitting a 15-week low amid increased selling pressure due to US banking turmoil.

With the market deeply red and investors in deep uncertainty, some experts still believe a wave of shorting could backfire.

Shorts are piling up, but a $117,000 comeback is looming

Joao Wedson, founder of Alpharactal, be turns out that many traders have recently opened short positions, thinking that Bitcoin’s bull cycle is over. However, this increase in short position levels could pave the way for a near-term recovery. If enough short positions are forced to provide cover, the price of BTC could quickly return to around $117,000 “within hours.”

Wedson’s bold prediction comes at a time when Bitcoin has fallen 6% in the last 24 hours alone. But he is not the only one who is confident of a quick recovery.

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, Bitcoin’s recent market action has exposed the brutal efficiency of leverage-based trading. Interestingly, two large, long liquidation events on Binance punished overextended bulls. The first wave of liquidations reached approximately $114,600, wiping out more than $573 million in long positions.

This zone had attracted late buyers chased the earlier breakout, but instead of fueling continuation, the market reversed sharply, eventually leading to successive liquidations. Traders who used excessive leverage were forced to exit positions at large losses, accelerating the short-term sell-off.

Just below that, a second liquidation cluster amounted to $111,270, claiming more than $383 million in losses. This wave hit those who had hoped for a quick recovery. These incidents illustrate how a long squeeze works: When traders use excessive amounts of money to buy Bitcoin, even small downward moves can trigger mass liquidations and create a cascading effect that pushes the price further down in quick succession.

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Retailers often amplify this effect by driving up financing rates and intensifying the squeeze. Historically, weak hands following such events create conditions for stabilization and even recovery in the short term, as selling pressure subsides and financing rates normalize.

Looking ahead, new liquidation clusters are now forming around $117,000 and $127,000, marking the next critical zones where stop-loss and leveraged positions could trigger further market moves.

With overloaded longs flushed and weaker participants removed, CryptoQuant argues that Bitcoin could find room to bounce towards the $117,000 recovery zone and turn the recent pain into near-term bullishness.

Most critical trend line test since 2023

Another market watcher, Rekt Fencer noted that the main BTC trendline of the past two years is currently being tested. This same rising support has fueled every major rally since 2023. Data showed that each “bullish retest” of this trendline has historically led to a strong continuation of the uptrend, pushing Bitcoin to new cycle highs.

However, a clear break below could spell the end of the current structural uptrend and lead to deeper corrections.