Bitcoin (BTC) is once again testing a crucial level that could determine the direction of its next big move.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading just above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). technical line which analysts call the ‘Golden Line’ – as bulls aim for a breakout towards $135,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin tests the golden line: the 50 SMA holds the key
According to crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader), the 50 SMA has been the dividing line between “riches and regrets” for Bitcoin market cycles since 2021. “In 2021, this line caused the bear market. In 2024 and 2025, it caused every bullish breakout. Now Bitcoin is testing it again. The 50 SMA decides everything,” Merlin wrote on X.
On the line between wealth and regret, Bitcoin is once again testing its fate at the 50 SMA, where a jump could unleash the next big rally. Source: @MerlijnTrader via X
Historical data supports this claim. When Bitcoin broke below the 50 SMA in mid-2021, it marked the beginning of the bear market that saw BTC crash towards $20,000. Conversely, any sustained increase from this level in 2023 and early 2024 led to multi-month rallies.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading between $110,000 and $112,000, hovering dangerously close to the moving average. A clean rebound could set the stage for a bullish continuation, while a decisive collapse could lead to renewed liquidation pressure.
Analysts expect a top of $135,000 – $140,000 by the end of 2025
Prominent Elliott Wave analyst BigBullMike7335 (@Michael_EWpro) predicts that Bitcoin could reach its next cycle top between $135,000 and $140,000 in December 2025. “$BTC peaks in December 2025, $135-$140,000. “$200K-plus moon boys are about to find out,” he noted.
Bitcoin could peak around $135,000 – $140,000 by December 2025, humbling the $200,000 moon boys. Source: @Michael_EWpro via X
While the forecast is ambitious, it aligns with the broader Bitcoin price forecast narrative that sees BTC entering an expansion phase post-halving. Bitcoin’s next halving, completed in 2024, has historically preceded major bull runs – a pattern that institutional investors continue to watch closely.
Recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, including products from BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale, reinforce the view that institutional demand remains a strong tailwind for the market. Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization hovers around $2.1 trillion, accounting for roughly 53% of the global crypto capitalization.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: BTC to Gold Ratio Indicates a Turnaround
Trader TedPillows (@TedPillows) shared a long-term chart showing the BTC/Gold ratio forming a potential local bottom – a signal that Bitcoin could soon outperform gold after months of slowdown. “The next step should be $BTC outperformance, but that could happen when the US government shutdown ends,” Ted wrote.
The BTC/Gold ratio indicates a local bottom, indicating potential Bitcoin outperformance as macro tensions ease. Source: @TedPillows via X
The chart highlights an ascending support trendline dating back to 2017 and now meeting a descending resistance trendline – a classic setup for a bullish reversal. Ted attributes gold’s recent strength to concerns about the US-China trade war and a flight to safety, but believes these macro catalysts are fading, potentially putting momentum back into risky assets like Bitcoin.
Macro backdrop and ETF inflows could support BTC’s recovery
Institutional activity remains robust in the Bitcoin ETF markets. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC have reported steady inflows throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating continued investor confidence. These vehicles have not only increased Bitcoin’s legitimacy among traditional investors, but have also added deep liquidity to the BTC market.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions – including declining inflation expectations and a possible end to the US government shutdown – could fuel risky sentiment. If these factors align with strong technical support at the 50 SMA, the setup for another Bitcoin rally becomes increasingly attractive.
Bitcoin Outlook: Bullish Above the Gold Line
For now, Bitcoin’s fate appears to be tied to one simple question: Can it hold the Golden Line? As long as the 50 SMA remains intact, the structure favors another bullish move towards $135K, supported by rising ETF participation, a resilient BTC market cap, and a technically favorable BTC/gold ratio.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $110,028, down 0.09% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
Traders are keeping a close eye on this setup. A successful recovery from the 50 SMA could mark the start of a decisive rally, potentially repositioning Bitcoin towards its next all-time high (ATH).
If history rhymes, the 50 SMA could once again become the launching pad for Bitcoin’s next big cycle – a cycle that many hope will top $135,000 by the end of 2025.
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