Bitcoin (BTC) in danger? Break below the 100 week MA signals Problems

Bitcoin is trading around the 100-week MA, a level associated with past crashes, as analysts watch for a possible downturn or trend shift before the end of the year.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $86,700, with a 24-hour trading volume of $35 billion. The asset is down 1% in the past day and almost 4% weekly. It hit a local low of $80,500 on November 21 and has been trading between $84,000 and $90,000 for more than a month.

BTC tests historic support level

Bitcoin is at the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), a level that has marked the start of every major cycle correction over the past decade. Analyst Chain Mind noted that previous breaks below this line led to declines of 35% to 55%. The most recent example was in 2022, when BTC fell over 57% after closing below the same level.

$BTC Sits right at the 100-week MA

LEVEL THAT ACTIVATED ANY MAJOR CYCLE CORRECTION

PREVIOUS BREAKS UNDER THIS BAND LEAD TO SELL-OUTS OF 35-55%

BITCOIN CAN RETEST MUCH LOWER LEVELS

WE’RE GOING LOWER pic.twitter.com/XImkkTGmDg

— 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗜𝗡 𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗗 ⛓🧠 (@0xChainMind) December 28, 2025

The chart shows that this moving average has acted as a bottom in previous bear markets. The current pullback already reflects a 31% drop from the recent peak of around $126,000. A confirmed close below the 100-week SMA would put BTC at risk of repeating previous patterns, possibly heading towards the $35,000 to $50,000 range.

Meanwhile, the slope of the moving average is flattening, indicating that long-term momentum is slowing. Traders are looking at the weekly close to see if Bitcoin can hold above this area or continue lower.

On shorter terms, BTC is trying to reclaim the 20-day moving average after remaining below it for 78 days. Michael van de Poppe commented that this could change the short-term pattern, but warned:

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“Nothing confirmed as the value rose above this 20-day MA during the previous correction.”

The 20-day moving average in particular remains an important short-term indicator. The price must remain above this level for the next few sessions to confirm a trend reversal.

Whale activity and sentiment signals mixed

Analyst CW be to long positions of Bitfinex whales, indicating that the early stages of a new cycle may be underway.

“The start of Bitfinex whales profiting from their long positions in $BTC signals the start of a bull market,” the analyst said.

Others, however, are less optimistic. Ali Martinez described the current move as a potential dead-cat bounce, adding that BTC “couldmake another leg lowerbefore stabilizing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, showing that momentum remains weak (according to TradingView).

Bitcoin opened at $93,400 in 2025. It is now down about 5% this year. With three days to go before the annual candle closes, Lark Davis noted“$BTC has never closed an annual post-halving candle so red in its history.”