Bitcoin (BTC) Could Repeat a Q1 2025 Cycle, and Final Shakeout May Be Close

Rising Japanese yields and struggling US banks point to the ‘slow burn’ risks that analysts fear could trigger Bitcoin’s final decline.

After a severe sell-off, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized around $91,500. Pseudonymous crypto market analyst Axel Bitblaze has now found that the latest asset decline appears to be retracing the pattern seen in the first quarter of 2025, when assets peaked in January and fell 17%, while the S&P 500 continued to reach new highs.

At the time, he noted that many believed Bitcoin was simply cooling off. However, four weeks later, the S&P 500 also peaked, and both markets fell at the same time, ultimately leading to a six-week period where BTC fell 25% and the index fell 21%.

A final bearish trigger?

Bitblaze argued that the current circumstances are strikingly similar. Bitcoin peaked on October 6 and is already down about 18% in recent weeks, while the S&P 500 is only now starting to decline.

According to this analysis, the sequence resembles the same cycle: Bitcoin starts to decline early without a clear bearish catalyst; stocks continue to rise because they generally lag; investors eventually feel broader weakness and stocks go bankrupt; The BTC sell-off briefly intensifies; Bitcoin is regaining strength faster than stocks; a final market leak follows; and then a reversal occurs. Bitblaze said the market is likely in phase three or four of this pattern, with most of Bitcoin’s downsides already realized.

The analyst added that if markets are waiting for a final bearish trigger, it may already be forming, while pointing to rising Japanese bond yields, liquidity pressures at smaller U.S. banks and market sensitivity to rumors involving prominent political figures.

As such, the current downturn is largely tied to the first two factors, which are potentially “slow burn” issues that often erupt without warning.

“So yeah… it feels like we’re close to the end of the damage, not the beginning. But another shakeout wouldn’t surprise me at all.”

Bearish forces still dominate

Despite a slight improvement in short-term signals, another analyst, Axel Adler Junior, said believes the BTC market structure remains clearly bearish. The quick version of the Bull-Bear Structure Index has risen from a critical value of -41.89 on November 17 to -27.82, indicating that bearish pressure has eased as prices stabilize around $91,000. However, he noted that the indicator is still well below the -25% threshold, and that negative taker flow, pressure on derivatives and ETF outflows continue to dominate.

You might also like:

Meanwhile, the slow, smoothed version of the index has weakened further after falling from -14.04 to -21.90, meaning deeper structural bearish trends are still gaining strength.

Additionally, the Coinbase Premium Gap has dropped to -$90, which happens to be one of the lowest levels this year. This indicates weakened institutional participation. The premium typically rises when big players accumulate BTC, but the current negative numbers show that retail-dominated trading on Binance is leading the way. Analysts warn that this pattern could increase volatility and selling pressure until institutional buyers return