Despite Bitcoin reaching $126,000, the year-end sell-off led to its first annual loss after the halving.
Following the April 2024 halving, which traditionally paves the way for strong gains over the next 12 to 18 months, BTC rose to a new all-time high above $126,000 in October before reversing sharply in the final months of the year.
ETFs, macro pressures and a broken cycle
According to market data, Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than where it started as the annual candle closed below January’s opening price. This scenario would never have occurred after any of the previous halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020. This unusual performance has reignited the debate over the fate of the so-called “four-year cycle” that many traders have relied on to predict post-halving bull runs.
Some analysts argue that the cycle collapse reflects Bitcoin’s growing role as a macro risk instrument influenced more by broader financial markets, ETF flows and regulation than by simple supply mechanisms.
Others, meanwhile, see it as a correction within a still-intact long-term trend. Throughout 2025, BTC faced mixed signals: strong institutional interest and increasing ETF adoption, as well as macroeconomic headwinds that weighed on risk assets around the world. Investor Armando Pantoja, for example, said that the market structure has fundamentally changed and that old assumptions no longer apply.
“The market has new players – Crypto is not 2016 or 2020 anymore. ETFs, institutions and corporate balance sheets no longer trade like hype-driven retail. Bitcoin Trades Macro Now – BTC responds to liquidity, prices, regulation and geopolitics – not a perfect halving calendar. Patterns break when everyone expects them. Halving ≠ Mechanical pump – The halving still matters, but supply is increasingly blocked, miners have financing options and price dynamics are no longer as automatic as before.”
Deeper disadvantage ahead
Bitcoin advocate and longtime industry voice Simon Dixon, too shared took a similar stance while announcing the end of BTC’s traditional four-year market cycle, arguing that the asset is entering a “new era.”
While BTC has fallen more than 30% in the last few months since its October peak, several market watchers believe the worst is yet to come. For example, Doctor Profit has repeatedly warned that the bottom has not yet been reached and instead sees another move towards the $60,000-$70,000 area in a matter of time.
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