The current rebound of Bitcoin of the low of $ 107,200 has caused a renewed debate about whether the market has set all its local soil and is positioned to get higher. Independent Analyst Astronomer (@Stronomer_Zero) claims that the chance is “90%+” that the low is planted, quoting both the price structure and its recurring “FOMC circumference” Framework “Framework” Framework “Framework as confirmation.
Analysts claim a 90% chance that the Bitcoin floor is located
Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term range of $ 123,000 to $ 110,000- $ 111,000 zone, revealed that he turned around for a long time when the goal was reached at the end of August. “Okay, as if the confluences of my trust in the soil were in the $ 110k area in the $ 110k area at the end of August … There is now a different confluence in line,” he wrote. According to him, the policy cycle of the Federal Reserve has historically seen as a turning point for Bitcoin trends.
He explained: “The FOMC meeting data changes the current trend to do a minimum of 0 beams (on the date), or a maximum of 6 bars before the date, and that correctly did 90%+ of the times well. The few times it is not, was because our quarterly long take over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, marks the event at the front of the event, because insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before the sentiment of the retail trade digests the outcome.
With the next FOMC planned for September 18, he claims the downward trend from $ 123,000 to $ 110,000 that has already exhausted itself before the schedule. “Now that with FOMC is popping up … the low point is probably already planted, and the trend turned back to again,” he said.
The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary system, where many influencers continue to predict a ‘red September’. He mentioned such views “destroyed nonsense” rooted in seasonal level at surface level. “Every time it works, it plans its soil before the actual meeting to run the expectation … Insiders have already set the post -fomc price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, and emphasized that the trust in generic “be careful” prior to central bank events missing the structural shift.
After his long access to $ 110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $ 115,000, as a result of which astronomer declares the Bearish thesis of September invalid. “September will close green. Yup, September September now officially 6% in the wrong. As September became open at 108,299 and the price is now at 115,000. That will put September in the upper historic quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noticed.
He also pointed to the last two years as proof that the reputation of September has lost the statistical lead as a seasonal weak month before Bitcoin. “Indeed, a certain month does not have to be green. ‘Seasonalness’ is only a cookie cutting version of correct use of cycles. Look in the past two years, September is also green and common for the bears,” he wrote.
The conclusion is clear to the astronomer: “When many mergers point in the same direction, this usually means that you have correctly resolved the Rubik’s cube and believe so confidently.” Yet he tackled the conviction with discipline for risk management and stated: “Of course I could always have it, although it was a long time ago that we have lost an exchange, never go everything in. Take a considerable size and sleep noise.”
With Bitcoin who has left more than $ 115,000 and the FOMC meetings days, the market statement about whether a sustainable soil has been formed, rather instead of arriving later.
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