Bitcoin bear market lasts months: bottom may not occur until late 2026 (analyst)

Short-term gains could be possible, but the bear market could last until the end of 2026.

In fact, prominent crypto analyst Doctor Profit believes that the asset could bottom out in September-October 2026.

Long bear market for Bitcoin

In a recent tweet, he explained that he has moved all remaining USDT back into the banking system and currently holds no liquid crypto assets, citing the ongoing bear market as the reason.

Doctor profit said that current market conditions do not justify remaining liquid in crypto, and he believes the bear phase will continue for a long time. He also disclosed his largest positions, including a BTC short of $115,000-$125,000 and a mid-sized BTC holding that bought about 85,000 shares. He plans to see a potential short-term rise to $107,000 before the next downward phase in February-March.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $89,259, after a daily gain of 2%. Although the asset has seen some upside movement in the short term, it continues to hover below crucial resistance levels. According to CryptoQuant, $100,000 is major short-term resistance for BTC, largely due to the concentration of cost bases among recent whale investors and Binance users.

New whales, who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have an average cost basis of about $100,500. This makes it a critical breakeven zone where profit-taking or new accumulation could determine short-term price developments. On the other hand, Binance spot users average around $56,000, providing a significant support level in a potentially extended bear phase.

Whales with more than 155 days of holdings have an average cost basis of around $40,000, meaning they remain significantly profitable and are likely contributing to the recent profit-taking.

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Downside risk of $40,000

Supporting the broader bearish narrative, analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted Bitcoin’s behavior around its 50-week simple moving average (SMA). He explained that the loss of this level in recent cycles has typically resulted in an average decline of around 54%.

When applied to current prices, such a move would represent a potential drop towards $40,000. The analyst did not call for an immediate sell-off, but did warn that failure to regain this level could expose the crypto assets to prolonged downward pressure.