Bharti Airtel Q2 Preview: PAT could increase by 64% on stable performance in India and Africa

Bharti Airtel is expected to report a strong set of numbers for the July-September quarter (Q2 FY26), driven by steady growth in its Indian mobile business, resilient performance in Africa and continued gains in its home broadband and business segments. According to an average of six brokers, the company’s consolidated revenue is expected to grow about 21% year-over-year, while net profit could rise 64% from a low base last year.

Analysts expect the company to post revenues between Rs 51,000 and 52,000 crore, supported by higher average revenue per user (ARPU), rising 4G and 5G data usage and continued growth in its wireline business. Consolidated EBITDA grew by double digits, with margin stability supported by cost discipline and an improved subscriber mix.

Brokers largely expect a stable quarter with limited impact from the company’s decision to phase out its low-cost 1GB plans. UBS said Bharti is likely to deliver a “stable” performance, with 13% year-on-year growth in both revenue and EBITDA, supported by recovery in the corporate sector after several quarters of restructuring.

UBS expects India mobile revenues to grow 13% YoY and 2% sequentially, led by 2.3% ARPU growth, while the home broadband segment is likely to grow more than 27% YoY on robust subscriber base.

JM Financial expects the company to add approximately 7.2 million mobile broadband users this quarter – nearly double the number in the previous quarter – thanks to rising data usage and improved network coverage.

Total subscriber base may remain modest at around 2 million, while wireless ARPU is estimated to rise 1.6% to Rs 254, supported by upgrades and improved subscriber mix. The company estimates that wireless revenues in India will rise 2% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 27,900 crore, while segment EBITDA will improve 2.1% to Rs 166 billion. The home broadband industry is expected to add well over a million new users, and the enterprise business should see a gradual recovery after exiting the low-margin wholesale and voice business earlier this year. Also read: Madhusudan Kela Portfolio: 7 stocks rise to 67% in FY26; new bet revealed in Q2

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley expects Airtel to post consolidated revenue of Rs 51,500 crore, up 14.7% year-on-year, and EBITDA of Rs 290 billion, up 13.5% from last year. However, it expects net profit to be around Rs 5,430 crore, down 8.7% sequentially, due to higher depreciation and finance costs, even as profits grow 34.9% year-on-year.

Morgan Stanley expects Airtel to generate free cash flow of about $1.4 billion this quarter, with consolidated net debt expected to decline to about $21 billion from $22.4 billion in the previous quarter.

Axis Securities also expects healthy sequential growth of 4.6%, supported by continued momentum in its mobile and African businesses. However, it forecasts a slight contraction in EBIT margin of around 35 basis points, citing the normalization of operating leverage and increased network investments. The broker expects commentary on ARPU trends, subscriber numbers and the pace of 5G rollout to be key areas of focus.

While Africa remains a consistent contributor, investors will be on the lookout for updates on tariff adjustments, especially in the entry-level plans that Airtel recently discontinued. Analysts expect ARPU to continue to rise as customers migrate to higher value packages, while the enterprise business should benefit from improved pricing and a sharper focus on profitability.

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