The streets with the best ball draw are sensible these days. Rookie production typically peaks at the end of the season. These are the money weeks, when production matters most. However, being too aggressive with beginner selections could prevent you from advancing to the money weeks at all. Below are the top rookie selections on Underdog and the veterans they are close to in Underdog drafts. Who will you take with you: the Pro or the Prospect?
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The professional
Saquon Barkley is coming off a disappointing 2025 season. In 2024, he averaged 21.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and finished as RB2 in Best Ball Points Added with 236.2. But Barkley crashed to earth last season, averaging just 13.4 fantasy points per game and ranking 14th among running backs with a career-best 123.7 points added.
Much of Barkley’s poor season was due to a drastic decline in opportunities: he saw 65 fewer carries last season than he did in 2024, with just seven more goals. Saquon’s efficiency numbers also declined, as his average yards per touch dropped from 6.0 to 4.5. This was in large part because his Breakaway Runs were halved from his epic 2024 season. As he enters his age-29 season, drafting Barkley in the second round is a bet on a bounce-back season, with his talent overcoming any age-related decline in production.
The prospect
Jeremiyah Love is easily the RB1 of the 2026 draft class. He may not be on the same level as Barkley as a prospect, but Love brings a similar bell cow to last year’s sixth overall selection, Ashton Jeanty. Love showcased his pinnacle skills at Notre Dame, earning a 10.5% target share (82nd percentile) and a 31.7% Dominator rating (79th percentile). With logical landing spots in the top 10 including the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs, Love could easily be the end of the first round top pick after the NFL Draft.
The Pick
Ideally, I usually look for smoothed exposure in the first four rounds of the best ball fantasy drafts. However, the appeal of Love’s expected post-NFL Draft ADP surge is too hard to pass up. I’ll wait to take Barkley after Love’s ADP rises following the NFL Draft, which will hopefully allow me to smooth out my exposures at better prices as draft season continues. I also expect Barkley’s price to drop once the landing spots solidify thanks to free agency and depth.
The prospect(s)
Carnell Tate is the leader of the pack of incoming rookie wide receivers in ADP. The speedy Ohio State product is expected to be a top 10 pick in this year’s NFL Draft. However, its place in this piece can also serve as a placeholder Jordyn Tyson (ADP 59.1) and Makai Lemon (ADP 56.7), which have similarly situated ADPs. Like Tate, Tyson and Lemon are expected to have excellent draft capital and offer attractive prospect profiles.
The difficulty in selecting these recipients is the uncertainty of their landing spots. For example, Tate has been mocked at fourth overall, where he would be Cam Ward’s WR1, while new Titans OC Brian Daboll would put him together like Malik Nabers. But he’s also recently been mocked to the Browns, which is a less-than-ideal landing spot given the uncertainty surrounding the Browns’ starting quarterback.
The professional
Veteran Jaylen Waddle also faces uncertainty over who will give him the football. The Dolphins are set to move on from longtime starter Tua Tagovailoa after he was unceremoniously benched toward the end of the 2025 season. However, the Dolphins also just released Tyreek Hill, making Waddle their de facto WR1 at the moment. Waddle is having his best season since 2023, racking up more than 1,306 Air Yards last year, finishing as the WR23 overall. While a top 24 finish is within Waddle’s reach this season, it doesn’t appear like he’s making gains on much else given the uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins’ quarterback position.
The Pick
While Waddle is a safe floor option, now is the time to draft the starting wide receivers like Tate! Tate’s ADP could increase with a landing on the Titans or Commanders. A good landing spot for Tate could get him 15 times the draft board. Even if Tate goes to an undersized landing spot like the Browns — or the Dolphins to join Waddle — his ADP shouldn’t sink that far. He’s already been grouped with wide receivers in good offenses with ambiguous pecking orders or in likely bad offenses… like Waddle.
The professional
Xavier Worthy had a terrible 2025 season, thanks in part to a shoulder injury that almost cost him his season. Worthy was able to play through the pain, but averaged a paltry 6.4 half PPR fantasy points per game as the WR59 overall. After teammate Rashee Rice returned from suspension in Week 7, Worthy averaged just five goals per game and failed to reach double figures in half PPR fantasy points in any game. He will look to return to the player fans saw in last year’s Super Bowl against the Eagles. However, it could take some time for Worthy to get going as Patrick Mahomes recovers from a torn ACL to start the season.
The prospect
Like Worthy, Denzel Boston is expected to enter the NFL Draft near the end of Round 1. He profiles as a downfield, boundary, jump-ball receiver, similar to Michael Pittman. This type of profile could make him a “better at best ball” type receiver for his rookie season. With landing spots like the Patriots, 49ers and Bills in play, Boston’s ADP could see a huge spike after the NFL Draft.
The Pick
While Boston’s ADP will likely increase after the draft, I personally have more Worthy! Even if Boston ends up in a great spot for his rookie season, he’ll likely be in a similar situation as Worthy. Both players will likely be secondary target earners for elite offenses. However, Worthy lets Patrick Mahomes throw him the football. While Mahomes and Worthy need to click down the stretch, I want him on my team if that happens. In short, Worthy’s upside in the Chiefs’ offense exceeds the likely best-case scenario for Denzel Boston in year one.
The prospect
The selection of Fernando Mendoza as the Raiders’ first overall pick seems like it’s being written with a darker pen every day. It appears he will likely join a Raiders passing attack centered around former first-rounder and elite tight end Brock Bowers. While the current assumption is that Mendoza will go to the Raiders first, he will likely see an ADP spike once the seemingly inevitable becomes a reality.
The professional
CJ Stroud is coming off a mediocre statistical season. He was the QB21 overall and posted a career-low 423 pass attempts. He also scored a career-low 19 passing touchdowns, a number that should increase next season as Tank Dell returns to the team and Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel enter their second seasons. Stroud can easily bounce back to provide top 10 overall fantasy quarterback production like he did in his rookie season.
The choice
I’m leaning toward choosing Mendoza over Stroud simply because of the rookie’s projected ADP bump. However, both allow for fine selections, with backdoor stacking options available. If I already drafted Nico Collins or Jayden Higgins, I’ll probably select Stroud. If I went with Bowers or Jeanty early, I’ll take Mendoza. As long as your roster construction makes sense, both are great choices at their ADPs.
The prospect
Tight end prospect Kenyon Sadiq was the focal point of Oregon’s 2025 offense and led the Ducks in receptions. He has the profile of a potential next-level volume hog with a short ADOT in college, similar to Tyler Warren. He is routinely mocked early in the second half of the first round. Landing spots in the NFC South with the Bucs and Panthers make for the most intriguing scenarios.
The professional
Juwan Johnson seems to fly under the radar every year. Last season was his best in the NFL, finishing TE10 overall. His best 28.8 points added ranked 17th among tight ends. He provides a stable veteran option and a nice backdoor stack for his quarterback Tyler Shough.
The choice
Who I take here mostly depends on what I’ve done so far at the tight end position and what I expect to do down the road. If I want to select another rookie tight end like Eli Stowers, I will usually bypass Sadiq. If I already have an experienced tight end roster, I’ll usually try to get Sadiq in the hopes that he’ll hit his stride later in the season. Both players make for solid selections, depending on how you build your roster.
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