“Are you actually prepared for the longest bear market in history,” one analyst asked.
The question now is whether BTC can make a decisive comeback or whether a new painful setback is on its way.
The bullish scenario
The primary cryptocurrency started the month on the wrong foot, with the correction intensifying on February 6 and plummeting to around $60,000, its lowest point since October 2024. In the following days, it has regained some lost ground and is currently trading at around $68,200 (according to CoinGecko data).
One person touching on BTC’s latest price dynamics is popular analyst Ali Martinez. He accepted that the asset appears to have formed an ‘Adam & Eve’ pattern, where a break above $71,500 could trigger additional momentum towards $79,000.
The bullish setup consists of two bottoms: a sharp decline (Adam), followed by a rounder decline (Eve). Some traders see this as a sign that selling pressure is easing and that the price could see a substantial rebound in the short term.
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) supports the bullish outlook. The index compares the current value of all BTC to the price people initially paid to acquire their holdings. High ratios mean investors are sitting on big profits and can increase selling pressure, while low numbers can be interpreted as the end of the bear market.
In recent weeks the MVRV has fallen steadily and is now around 1.25. According to CryptoQuant, ratios above 3.7 indicate a price top, while values below 1 indicate the bottom could have been reached.
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Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also worth observing. The technical analysis tool measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and provides traders with indications of potential reversal points. It ranges from 0 to 100, with values below 30 considered buying opportunities and suggesting BTC may be oversold. On the contrary, ratios above 70 are generally considered a warning of a possible relapse. The RSI has fallen to 28 on a weekly basis.
Has the bear phase just begun?
Other analysts, including Chiefy, believe that another painful near-term decline is the most likely option for BTC. The X user argued that the assets could be on the verge of a major dump to $29,000 as early as this week, adding:
“The last Bull Trap of 2026 is over and according to this chart the next crash has already started. Are you actually prepared for the longest bear market in history?”
Meanwhile, BTC balances on centralized exchanges have been rising in recent weeks. While this development does not guarantee any further downside, it can be interpreted as a bearish sign as it means that the number of coins that can be released at any time is increasing.
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