Bearish pressure still dominates as ETH fails to regain $3K: Ethereum price analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $3,000 zone, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. The market is in a consolidation phase after failing to hold above $3,100, and traders are now keeping a close eye on key levels on both the daily and 4H charts. While the macro structure remains under pressure, short-term sentiment and positioning point to possible future volatility.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH remains trapped below both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, which still act as dynamic resistance above the $3,500 level. The price failed to settle above the $3,100-$3,200 resistance block and is now hovering just below that range near $2,980. The lack of higher highs indicates continued bearish pressure.

Still, the $2,700 support zone remains an area of ​​strong demand after the price was supported several times in recent months. As long as ETH remains above that zone, the downside risk is somewhat limited. But any loss of that support could accelerate the move lower, potentially opening the door to the $2,300 area.

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, the value has been consolidating between $2,800 and $3,000 over the past week. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the early December rally show that the 0.618-0.5 zone below the $3,000 zone has acted as a strong ceiling recently. So far, every escape attempt up there has been rebuffed.

Meanwhile, the RSI at the 4-hour mark is slowly climbing back towards 60, indicating building momentum, but it is not yet convincing. Buyers need to break and hold the $3,000 level to gain control in the near term. Until then, it’s still a choppy range with a slight bearish bias. Therefore, the price action remains reactive and not proactive.

Sentiment analysis

Ethereum’s open interest has steadily declined since its mid-November peak, showing a decline in aggressive positioning from both bulls and bears. From a high of around $32 billion, OI has now fallen to below $20 billion, reflecting uncertainty and a lack of conviction in the current direction of the market.

This cooling of leverage is often seen prior to a big move. The market is essentially being reset. If the OI now starts to rise again while the price remains flat, this could signal a return of speculative interest rates, which will likely lead to volatility. So, traders should stay alert for sudden spikes in both OI and volume, which could confirm a breakout attempt or a new leg lower.