Bear market rally? Bitcoin Demand Shows Improvement, But Remains Weak (CryptoQuant)

Demand conditions in Bitcoin have shown improvement lately; however, they are still weak despite bitcoin’s latest rally.

In a weekly report of CryptoQuant, market experts noted that BTC demand conditions have recently improved. However, they are still weak and have not changed significantly. This supports the claim that the market is still in a bearish phase despite Bitcoin’s latest rally.

Bitcoin sees bear market rally

Since November 21, 2025, BTC has risen approximately 20% to current levels. The rally follows a 19% decline that confirmed the start of a bear market as BTC fell below its 365-day moving average (MA). The rise brought the leading cryptocurrency close to its 365-day MA, currently at $101,000.

Historically, the 365-day MA has functioned as a regime boundary, with previous bear cycles showing repeated rejections around that level before resuming downward movement. BTC recorded a similar pattern in the 2022 bear cycle, and this time is no different.

The rally in bitcoin’s price comes amid slightly improved but weak demand conditions. In fact, demand on the spot market is still declining. US spot indicators, such as the Coinbase Price Premium and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), briefly turned positive. The Coinbase premium briefly rose from deep negative territory for the second time since mid-December 2025.

Demand for Bitcoin remains weak

There is still no extraordinary activity on the ETF front. These products only stopped net selling during the rally, after selling a whopping 54,000 BTC in a 30-day period in November 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have not signaled a strong return in US demand or shown continued accumulation.

Furthermore, apparent demand metrics show that spot demand for Bitcoin has shrunk by 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days and has been in negative territory since November 28, 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have bought just 3,800 BTC so far this year, compared to 3,600 at the same time last year – levels below the thresholds associated with bull market recovery.

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Meanwhile, analysts say BTC could face increased selling pressure in the coming weeks as currency flows have started to rise following the recent rally. Bitcoin transfers to exchanges have increased to a seven-day average of 39,000 BTC. Increased flows to exchanges have historically been associated with escalating selling activity, so more trouble may lie ahead for BTC.