It was virtually all chalk in the top quarter of the Australian Open draw, where top seed Carlos Alcaraz faces Tommy Paul on Sunday. In an unmissable match in the fourth round, Alex de Minaur takes on Alexander Bublik.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (19) Tommy Paul
Alcaraz rode through the first week of the Australian Open and never had to shift into top gear. The world number 1 dismissed Adam Walton 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-2 and Corentin Moutet 6-2, 6-4, 6-1. Although Alcaraz played well against Moutet, he also recovered a double break in the second set before righting the ship.
The Spaniard’s bid for a first title at Melbourne Park continues on Sunday with a fourth-round showdown against Paul. This marks their eighth meeting and also their eighth on a major stage – at a Grand Slam, Masters 1000 event or the Olympic Games. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 5-2, including 2-0 at majors (2024 Wimbledon, 2025 French Open). This has been one of the best tennis rivalries in 2022 and 2023, but their recent encounters have mostly been one-way traffic in Alcaraz’s favor. While Paul has yet to drop a set Down Under, it’s hard to see the 20th-ranked American seriously scaring Alcaraz.
Choice: Alcaraz in 4
(10) Alexander Bublik vs. (6) Alex de Minaur
De Minaur and Bublik will compete for the sixth of their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of De Minaur, but Bublik won both meetings in 2025: 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 at Roland Garros and 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-5 in the quarter-finals of the Paris Masters.
The new and improved version of Bublik was featured in both matchups. It also looks set to hit the scene in 2026 as 10th-ranked Kazakh gets off to a 7-0 start with a title in Hong Kong, followed by Aussie Open wins over Jenson Brooksby, Marton Fucsovics and Tomas Martin Etcheverry – all in straight sets. De Minaur is also rolling. The sixth-ranked Australian secured his spot in the second week by beating Mackenzie McDonald, Hamad Medjedovic and Frances Tiafoe, while losing just one set to Medjedovic in a tiebreak. With both guys in great form, this should be one of the best third round matches, along with Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien. Over the course of five sets in front of what will be a rowdy crowd, De Minaur’s counter punches may be just enough to counter Bublik’s firepower.
Choice: De Minaur in 5
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