Here’s how both the men’s tennis futures and women’s tennis futures markets are stacking up on the Australian Open 2026.
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Men’s draw: the two-horse race and the long shots
The models paint a clear picture: this is a duopoly. Combined, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have a stunning 77.6% chance of winning the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup.
The favorites: Sinner and Alcaraz
Jannik Zondaar (45.2%): The No. 2 seed but clear statistical favorite. Sinner enters the tournament with almost a coin chance to win it all. Sinner begins his campaign against France’s Hugo Gaston. Given his expected dominance, anything short of a final appearance would be a statistical shock.
Carlos Alcaraz (32.4%): The top seed Alcaraz will face local Adam Walton in the first round. Although his probability is lower than Sinner’s, he remains the only other player with a double-digit probability of winning.
Note about Novak: It’s shocking to see that Novak Djokovic is at just 7.4%. He faces a tough opener against clay specialist Pedro Martínez, but the data suggests his stranglehold on Melbourne is loosening.
The American Hope: Taylor Fritz
For American fans looking for a deep run, Taylor Fritz remains the top contender, although the path is steep.
- Chances of winning: 1.2%
- First round: Fritz will face Frenchman Valentin Roye in the first round.
The prospects: Fritz will need to significantly exceed his projection to challenge the Sinner/Alcaraz axis, but he has a manageable opening round to establish himself. Compatriots Learner Tien (0.5%) and Ben Shelton (0.3%) round out the top American hopes, according to our data.
The dark horse: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+8000)
If you’re looking for a game with high rewards to splash, the data points to Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime, the No. 7 seed.
FAA calls Melbourne perhaps the most undervalued asset in the men’s futures market. While the headlines are rightly dominated by the Sinner-Alcaraz duopoly, the Canadian has quietly re-established himself as the leader of the chasing pack. His resurgence in late 2025 was statistically elite: he racked up more than forty victories on hard courts – a mark surpassed only by Australian Alex de Minaur – and reached the semi-finals of the US Open, when he pushed Jannik Sinner to four highly competitive sets.
At +8000 odds, the market prices him as a peripheral figure, ignoring his pedigree on this particular surface. FAA is a player who has reached the quarterfinals or better three times at hard-court majors, including a famous five-set battle at the Australian Open against Daniil Medvedev in 2022. Unlike other longshots who rely on favorable draws to advance, Auger-Aliassime has the raw firepower to fight his way through the draw, evidenced by his recent 10-3 record against Top 10 opponents (excluding Sinner and Alcaraz).
Its 1.2% win probability suggests its price is accurate according to the model, but the upside is undeniable. He opens against Portugal’s Nuno Borges, who doesn’t have the weapons to hurt FAA on the fast courts in Melbourne.
If Auger-Aliassime navigates the early rounds efficiently, the combination of a big serve and elite sporting ability makes him one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw. You don’t bet on him as the favorite; you are betting on a top five talent, priced like a journeyman.
The edge: At +8000 the books price him as a huge contender, but our model rates him at a 1.2% chance of winning – identical to Fritz, who is priced much lower at +4500.
Why bet on him: If FAA can find his rhythm early, he has the ceiling to upset the draw. And at 80 to 1, you’re not paying a premium for his talent.
Women’s draw: Sabalenka’s dominance and a value advantage
While the men’s draw is a two-man show, the women’s draw features a heavy favorite but a more chaotic chasing pack.
The favorite: Aryna Sabalenka
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (36.5%): The gap between Sabalenka and the field is enormous. Her probability of 36.5% is three times that of the second favorite (Rybakina with 12.3%). She opens against French wildcard Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah and should cruise early.
The American Hope: Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff (10.4%): The American star is firmly in the mix as third favorite. She starts her tournament against Kamilla Rakhimova from Uzbekistan.
The prospects: At a 10.4% chance, Gauff is the most viable threat to the “Big Two” (Sabalenka/Rybakina) and offers great interest for American fans.
Remark: Keep an eye on compatriots Amanda Anisimova (6.4%) and Jessica Pegula (4.6%), who also have strong claims to lift the women’s trophy at Rod Laver Arena on Saturday, January 31 (local time).
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The value game: Belinda Bencic (+4500)
One of the most interesting candidates in the women’s draw comes in the form of the Swiss Belinda Bencic.
Bencic’s appeal as a longshot lies in a resume that far exceeds her current title chances. Most notably, her gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics demonstrated her ability to navigate an elite field under pressure – a test of endurance on par with a Grand Slam. Her strongest results have come on hard courts, highlighted by her appearance in the semi-finals of the US Open in 2019, suggesting her game is well suited to the Melbourne surface, where she has reached the fourth round three times. Bencic was also a semi-finalist at Wimbledon in 2025.
Bencic, the No. 10 seed, presents a tough matchup for the tour’s heavyweights. She is primarily a baseliner and gets the ball early, a strategy that can neutralize the power of her opponents. Her ability to control the pace of a point has translated into a strong record against top-level opponents, with career victories over multiple world No. 1s, including Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka.
As she faces a challenging opener against Britain’s Katie Boulter, Bencic remains one of the best long shots in the women’s tournament.
The edge: Our model gives Bencic a 2.3% chance of winning. The implied probability of +4500 odds is approximately 2.17%. This means you get a mathematical advantage – a rare find in futures markets.
Why bet on her: If she survives Boulter, her chances will worsen. If you get the +4500 now, you can hold a ticket with a positive expected value for a player with a strong Grand Slam pedigree.
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