“Well, look, Framber’s still here,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to work out. But we know we had to get some starting pitching. So we were able to get three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. It’s important that we get Mike Burrows, and Ryan Weiss, that was big too. So we added those three guys. If you lose Framber – he’s still on the market, he’s there – but if you don’t get him, of course, then you’re So if we add these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors, too.
It’s not exactly surprising that things are turning out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents in this winter’s class. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR projected him with a $150 million guarantee over five years, $30 million in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend a lot of money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85 million extension Lance McCullers Jr. in 2021. It was reported in December that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.
In addition to their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly entered this winter on a tight budget due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had plenty of wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54 million deal comes with an AAV of $18 million. That’s still a decent number, but well below projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6 million on a one-year contract. Houston gave up some notable opportunities to get Burrows, but he still makes the league minimum.
Grid source currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of approximately $238 million. That puts them about $6 million below next year’s basic CBT threshold of $244 million. In recent years the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the border without going over it, although they have crossed the border in each of the last two years.
Going into 2024, they were a little below the line Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Houston suddenly felt the bullpen was too weak and signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season, but then took the chance to get their money’s worth Carlos Correaand thereby enter CGT territory.
Once again they have positioned themselves just below the tax, although the final status will not be calculated until the end of the season. That means they might decide to pay the tax again for the right opportunity.
“Everyone writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it, but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep into the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams, but you’ve seen over the years that we spend the money when we think it’s right, and we’ll be aggressive when we have to.”
Taking Brown and Crane’s comments together, it seems possible that the Astros have already made their most important moves of the winter. A few depth trades would still be likely, but the roster could be largely set. It is theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would provide a playing time block and possibly some salary cap space, but Brown downplayed that as well.
“I think there’s a chance we can get all these guys a lot of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You’ve got guys who can play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you if you want to rest guys. So, we’re looking at this in a lot of ways. But you know, we’re still listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players.
The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Pena at short stop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes possibly splitting time on the corners with Correa and Walker. He has experience at second base, but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025, but did not perform well there. Jordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play in the outfield, which is what the Astros have done Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesus Sanchez, Zach Cole And Zach Dezenzo.
Walker will earn $20 million annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $9.3 million in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded picture on the field and the tight budget, there is an argument for the Astros to trade someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it appears the club is aiming to retain the entire group and split playing time with some days off to keep everyone fresh.
Perhaps a trade will happen, given Brown’s acknowledgment that they will listen if other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions unless the Astros decide to shoot across the CBT line again. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter BrownImai, Burrows, Weiss and Christian Javier with boys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason AlexanderMcCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix to start.
Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will bring up the subject at some point. “We had some conversations with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect this to flare up again. Look, he has Boras, so it won’t be easy. But ultimately we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”
It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension ahead of the 2024 season, but talks fell through and he ultimately hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras customers sometimes sign extensions, but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.
Also complicating matters is that Brown has stepped up his performance quite a bit since then. He averaged 5.09 in 2023, his first full season in the majors. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then to 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025. American League Cy Young voted behind Pull Skubal And Garrett hook.
Hunter is now three years removed from free agency, meaning his earning power could move into the higher levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64 million extension through 2023, when he would have between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could reasonably be in that range and would only increase as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys less than two years after the open market, signing a $170 million deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would certainly be wise to do something sooner or later.
A major addition for Brown has the potential to boost the club’s CBT numbers. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on the average annual value of a contract. Perhaps the Astros will first want to sign Hunter to a one-year deal through 2026, where he expects a salary of $5.7 million. They could then start the extension in 2027 so it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons, but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some CBT space in the future.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
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