Ashes First Test preview: Why Perth will decide England’s fate Down Under

By Markus Conneely

‘Does England have a chance?’ It’s the question that permeates the British zeitgeist, appearing in pubs and being dissected during park walks.

The Ashes resonates with the British public and provides a refreshing source of relevance for a sport that is often prone to self-mockery.

But once the series disappears, so does the attention of the broader public.

Those who don’t usually follow cricket are currently thirsty for information. The ‘cricket badgers’, ‘cricket nuffies’ and – as Rory McIlroy recently called them – the ‘cricket sickos’ are in particularly high demand.

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AUSTRALIA V ENGLAND: FIRST TEST SCORECARD & MATCH CENTER

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But coming up with a thoughtful Ashes prediction is complex work. Those taking up the challenge must weigh Australia’s impenetrable Ashes record against their aging roster of players.

Injuries to Cummins and Hazlewood, which made them unavailable for the first Test, dealt the hosts a major blow.

Conversely, England are specialists in Ashes failure. That said, they have the two fastest bowlers in the world and a batting line-up likely suited to sun-drenched, fast Australian wickets. It’s a mixed, dark picture.

However, any concern or lack of clarity will only be temporary. Five days under the blazing Western Australian sun will surely clear the brain fog and provide a clear sign as to whether England will come out swinging and throw their first punches Down Under in a decade and a half.

A first Test defeat would kill their hopes; in the 21st century, only Vaughan’s 2005 England team has won an Ashes series after losing the opening match.

Disappointing

Remarkably, England have not won their first Test of an Ashes series in more than a decade.

Disappointing performances in the opening games at Edgbaston in 2019 and 2023 cost them and should be remembered this week.

England have often withered as the series in Australia have progressed, weakened by every trudge to collect a ball from the boundary; Ashes cricket is no place for slow starts and fanciful comebacks.

England have not won in Perth since 1978 but their Ashes hopes cannot survive a loss in the West.

The first ball of this series will understandably attract attention, following Burns’ disaster in 2021 and Crawley’s emphatic response 18 months later.

However, rather than the first ball, it is more likely to be the first over, session or slip catch opportunity that sets a lasting tone.

Green monster

Although the smart money is on Australia, there is still a path to victory for England.

If they get the chance to bowl first in the opening match – the toss is perhaps Ben Stokes’ most valuable contribution of the week – their bowling attack, probably one of the fastest they have ever fielded in a Test match, will turn Australia into a ‘green monster’, in the words of The West Australian.

Last year, 17 wickets fell on day one alone, during Australia’s match against India.

If England were to involve Australia, the pressure would increase on the hosts, whose batting line-up looks more tired than usual; Travis Head, for example, has crossed 40 just once in his last 20 innings across all formats, dating back to June.

While Australia is perhaps the most radical stronghold of the bat-first orthodoxy, circumstances are changing and the race to get their hands on the Kookaburra is on.

Believe

If England were to win and claim their first Test victory in Australia since January 2011, the confidence and belief that would flow through the playing group would make them instant favourites.

Each subsequent step through the crease, punching the ground and applying pressure to the back foot would be reinforced by the unshakable feeling that they are capable of victory.

Alternatively, a routine win for Australia, picking up where they left off in 2021/2022, would be devastating.

This would completely blow the trumpet and wreak havoc on a playing style based on self-confidence.

So far, every Test at Perth Stadium has resulted in an emphatic victory, with 146 runs being the narrowest margin.

Including the WACA, the last time the margin of victory was less than 100 runs was in 2009.

Devastation awaits someone. Who knows what will happen in the Ashes? After Perth I suspect we all will.

READ MORE: Ashes First Test preview: Australia vs England, what to expect