An hour after another excruciating loss in a major final, Aryna Sabalenka was asked about her record in grand slam finals. She responded by lamenting that she had lost most of the players she had played. She was wrong. Her bitter defeat to Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open final on Saturday gave her a 4-4 record in the major finals, a poor but not disastrous record. But considering how many great opportunities she has missed in recent years, it made perfect sense that in Sabalenka’s eyes she already has a dozen defeats behind her.
The Belarusian continues to build a fascinating career. So few players in the history of the sport have put themselves in a position to compete for the biggest titles as often as Sabalenka. She has reached five of the past six Grand Slam finals and eight overall. In her past thirteen Grand Slam tournaments, she has reached twelve semi-finals. The only time she failed to reach the final two rounds of a slam was when she was swept away by food poisoning during the quarter-finals of the 2024 French Open. Still, she brought Mirra Andreeva to three sets.
This is a remarkable level of consistency, a reflection of her overall mental toughness and her ability to handle the pressure that comes with the early rounds of grand slam tournaments. 90% of the time, Sabalenka looks by far the strongest and most formidable player in the world. However, her mental strength in so many different scenarios is repeatedly outweighed by her inability to keep her head in the grand finale. Once a major is within striking distance, Sabalenka is just as likely to lose her head as she is to flourish.
Significant efforts have already been made to address these issues. Sabalenka has worked with a sports psychologist in the past. She has been refreshingly candid about her mental shortcomings and how she becomes so restless at the most important moments. She knows as well as anyone that her shaky performance in the finals is all about pressure, nerves and the ability to think clearly enough to solve problems when a major is up for grabs.
Compared to some of her previous losses, such as her defeat to Coco Gauff in last year’s French Open final, Sabalenka’s setback on Sunday was not a catastrophe. Rybakina is the player of the moment and one of the few competitors who can outdo and overpower the 27-year-old, as she did in key moments. However, losing five games in a row in the third set of a grand slam final 3-0 is unacceptable for the best player in the world. After brilliantly keeping her composure to reverse a slow start, she became visibly irritated during the most important period of the match. She paid a high price for it again.
Sabalenka leaves Melbourne at an important crossroads in her career. Her achievements are already incredible. She is a four-time Grand Slam champion, has been at number 1 for 75 weeks and has won 22 titles. She is still the protagonist of women’s tennis and one of the best players of her generation.
But considering how many chances she is giving herself to win these majors, Sabalenka has a realistic chance of establishing herself as a legend of the game if she can only overcome her fear in the decisive moments of the grand slams. While she continues to give herself opportunities at every tournament, this streak won’t last forever. At 27, Sabalenka is at her physical peak and her game is as complete as it has ever been, meaning the pressure is on for her to understand how to better handle these moments.
Towards the end of a painful post-match dissection, having dealt with her crushing defeat with both dark humor and candid honesty, Sabalenka took a deep breath and refocused her thoughts. “The ambitions are still the same,” she says. “Keep fighting, keep working hard, keep putting myself out there and do my best if I get another chance in the finals. Just go out there and do my best. Then just try to do the same thing, you know? Try to see how many I can get.”
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