Since it has recently been pointed out that the Winnipeg Jets seem to be playing better, I thought I would dig into the stats a little to see if what “they” are saying is true.
Focusing on the most important part of a match, the 5 v 5 play, here is how our club played 38 games this season (via MoneyPuck).
This season (5 out of 5):
Recording Rate – 48.97% (21st in NHL)
Fenwick% – 48.72% (22nd in NHL)
xG% – 46.96% (26th in NHL)
Actual G% – 49.66% (15th in NHL)
Now those stats are pretty ugly… but they don’t exactly suggest the worst team in the league either. Thanks to Scheifele and the rest of the top line, the Jets are scoring more goals than they “earned” during the 2025-2026 season.
When you compare these numbers to how the President Trophy winning team did in 2024-2025, you see the massive fall from grace that has occurred.
Last season (5 out of 5):
Corsi% – 50.12% (14th in NHL)
Fenwick% – 50.7% (10th in NHL)
xG% – 52.9% (7th in NHL)
Actual G% – 58.82% (1st in NHL)
As you can see, Winnipeg’s stats were unsurprisingly much better last year… although once again you see the trend of the Jets scoring more goals than expected (which we number crunchers do not consider a sustainable achievement). In the recording categories (Corsi/Fenwick), the True Northers broke at almost even strength, which was a bad omen for the problems the Jets were having in the postseason.
Now that we understand what the True Northers looked like when they achieved great results and the data they put up this year as they plummeted to the bottom of the league. It’s time to take a look at the numbers from the most recent ten games to see if they support the Jets playing better lately, despite their record not supporting it.
Over the past 10 matches (5v5):
Course % – 56.32% (3rd in NHL)
Fenwick% – 56.04% (3rd in NHL)
xG% – 51.15% (12th in NHL)
Actual G% – 51.43% (10th in NHL)
The above information should actually strike a bit of fear among those of us looking forward to Winnipeg possibly getting the chance to make the first overall pick. The Jets have seriously outplayed the opposition in the most recent action… putting up numbers the club has rarely done in the last seven campaigns.
Winnipeg has also made a big improvement in the Expected Goals category, from 46.96% to 51.15%… although the lack of finishing hasn’t projected that onto the actual goal stats (49.66% to 51.43%). The unsustainable trend of our club scoring more goals than they actually deserved has disappeared the moment the team started playing more effectively, which has hidden their improved play from the win-loss record.
Regardless, when you compare the stats to the President’s Trophy winning campaign, the data is much closer than a 1-6-3 record would suggest. Having better numbers in the shot categories in recent Jets games, but not seeing the increase in xG at the same rate, could tell us that Winnipeg is taking more shot attempts with little danger. Still, the expected and actual goal stats place them firmly in the top half of the NHL, so you’d expect that if they keep up this type of play… the wins should come a lot more often.
Now, I’m not suggesting that a resurgence is just around the corner and that people should start saving for first round playoff tickets. Rather, this is just a warning that Winnipeg may not end the year in last place. Sorry to put a damper on your dreams Gavin McKenna wear a Jets jersey next season… but the stats suggest Winnipeg might need a little lottery luck to get a chance to go that high in the Entry Draft.
#Jets #playing