CNQ stock price
Canadian Natural Resources is trading near $47 per share at the time of writing, compared to $55 last year when oil prices were much higher.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is currently selling below $60 per barrel. That’s less than $80 in 2024. This is the main reason why CNRL’s stock price hasn’t followed the broader TSX’s gains this year.
Outlook for the oil market
Analysts broadly expect oil prices to remain under pressure through 2026. Record production in Canada and the United States, together with supply increases from OPEC and other producers, will more than offset demand growth. Furthermore, any news of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could lead to reduced sanctions on Russian oil.
On the demand side, China continues to face economic challenges related to the real estate crisis and continued tariffs imposed by the United States. As long as these problems continue, demand for oil from the world’s largest oil buyer is likely to remain weak. The US is the second largest oil consumer. If the U.S. economy enters a recession caused by high tariffs or a jump in inflation, oil prices could come under additional pressure.
In recent days there have been rumors from analysts that WTI oil could fall below $55 by 2026, with the more pessimistic forecasts suggesting a potential dip below $40 at some point. If that happens, oil producers are likely to see their stock prices come under further pressure.
However, after 2027 the market should rebalance and, as often happens in commodity cycles, the price could recover significantly.
CNRL revenue
Canadian Natural Resources continues to deliver earnings growth, even in current market conditions. The company generated $5.733 billion in adjusted net income from operations in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5.437 billion in the same period last year.
The growth is driven by higher production resulting from strategic acquisitions and successful drilling programs across the asset base. CNRL is best known for its oil activities, including oil sands, conventional light and heavy oil and offshore oil assets. The company is also a major natural gas producer in Western Canada.
Possibilities
Demand for natural gas is expected to increase significantly in the coming years as gas-fired power generation facilities are built to power AI data centers.
New pipeline capacity and the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals on British Columbia’s coast give CNRL and other Canadian natural gas producers access to global LNG markets where they can get higher prices for their product.
Oil export capacity for Canadian energy companies has also increased with the completion of the Trans Mountain expansion. Additional capacity growth is expected to be on the way.
Dividends
CNRL has increased its dividend each time over the past 25 years. Investors who buy CNQ stock at current levels can get a 5% dividend yield.
Should you buy now?
Investors should expect continued volatility, but an additional downtrend could be seen as an opportunity to add to the position. CNRL remains very profitable and will pay you well if you wait for an oil market recovery. If you have some money to put to work, this stock deserves to be on your radar.
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