Analysts warn Bitcoin could crash to $10,000 as macroeconomic stress and unwinding of risk assets signal a bursting crypto bubble if stocks continue to slide.
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has published a warning suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) could return to the $10,000s as financial market turbulence continues to spread.
His comments framed the current market decline as part of a broader derisking of risk assets, linked to equities, volatility cycles and macro liquidity.
Macro stress signals indicate increasing pressure
McGlone linked his view on several macro signals, including the U.S. stock market’s capitalization to GDP at its century high, unusually low 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and a rally in gold and silver that he believes is occurring at rates last seen about fifty years ago.
He characterizes the current environment as one in which “the crypto bubble is imploding” and describes 2026 as a potential reminder of 2008 in terms of market turbulence.
The analyst shared a chart comparing Bitcoin divided by ten against the S&P 500, showing both hovering below 7,000 on February 13. He added that if stocks on the S&P return to 5,600, BTC could mirror that move to around $56,000, and then potentially much lower if stocks peak.
“It seems unlikely that volatile and beta-dependent Bitcoin can remain above this threshold if beta does not,” wrote McGlone, which serves as the centerpiece of his bearish outlook. “Initial normal reversal is towards 5,600 SPX ($56,000 Bitcoin), what next? Part of my base case for Bitcoin to return to $10,000 is a spike in the US stock market. 7,000 S&P 500, 50,000 Dow cannot be tops – or else.”
Recent performance data shows why such alerts are gaining popularity. Bitcoin is down about 2% in 24 hours and almost 28% in the past month, with six-month losses of almost 39%. Trading activity remains high, with roughly $44 billion in futures volume and open interest nearly at the same level, suggesting heavy derivatives positioning during the decline.
Additionally, a February 16 report from CryptoQuant found that approximately 43% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently at a loss, while the Fear and Greed Index fell to 8, a level seen during previous crisis periods such as the FTX collapse.
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Long-term holders and institutions are still piling up
Despite the bearish signals, not all indicators are pointing down, especially given CryptoQuant’s data shows so-called accumulator addresses buy about 372,000 BTC per month, up from about 10,000 in September 2024.
These portfolios meet strict criteria such as no outflows and multi-year activity, which analysts say reduces distortion and suggests long-term positioning rather than short-term trading.
Institutional behavior also shows that major players still have confidence in BTC, with Binance confirming that it has fully converted the $1 billion SAFU insurance reserve into Bitcoin and now holds around 15,000 BTC. Days earlier, a filing showed that Goldman Sachs still had exposure to 13,740 BTC through spot ETFs, even though the value of those positions had fallen sharply with the price.
Meanwhile, some commentators, such as economist Holger Zschaepitz, are looking to cross-asset links to explain prevailing market conditions. The analyst wrote on
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