Alex Bregman is having a strong season
The 31-year-old hit .273/.360/.462 with a 125 wRC+ in 114 games for Boston. After posting an unusually low 6.7% walk rate in 2024, he rebounded to 10.3% in 2025, while his strikeout rate rose only modestly to a still-excellent 14.1%. His batted ball data backs up his performance, with his average exit velocity of 93.1 mph and hard hit percentage of 44.4% both representing career highs. Despite missing seven weeks in the first half of the season with a right quad injury, Bregman was worth 3.5 fWAR this year and ranked seventh among major league third basemen with at least 400 plate appearances.
Defensively, Bregman scored above average after taking a step back from his 2024 season. In 972 1/3 innings at third base, he was worth one Defensive Run Saved and three Outs Above Average in 2025, with Statcast rating his range in the 83rd percentile. For comparison, he was worth 6 DRS and 8 OAA with the Astros last year. Defensive metrics are notoriously tricky, of course, but it appears Bregman will remain a defensive asset well into his 30s.
Financial consequences of the opt-out
By opting out, Bregman is waiving two years at an AAV of $40 million. However, that figure is somewhat misleading, as $60 million of the $120 million total is deferred until 2035-2046. according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Pressthus significantly reducing the AAV of the contract. Whatever the case, Bregman will undoubtedly look to exceed that guarantee in his second straight trip to the free agent market.
Prior to this year’s quad injury, he had three straight seasons of good health from 2022 to 2024 and is a reasonable bet to stay healthy going forward. While he signed a short-term, high AAV deal with opt-outs last time, he should have better luck in the market this time.
Under the terms of the current collective bargaining agreement between the owners and the MLB Players Association, Bregman is ineligible for a qualifying offer after receiving one from the Astros last season. A future team won’t have to forfeit draft pick compensation to sign Bregman this time around. A look at our List of 2025-2026 MLB Free Agents shows Bregman as the clear headliner at third base, with Eugenio Suarez representing the next best option. The 34-year-old Suarez hit 49 home runs this season and matched Bregman’s 125 wRC+, but he is also vulnerable defensively.
Should Alex Bregman and the Red Sox reunite?
Given the state of the market, the fact that he is not eligible for a new qualifying offer and his strong platform season, Bregman will likely be looking for a long-term contract this season. A reunion with the Red Sox is certainly possible, as the team traded Rafael Devers to the Giants last June.
The team hasn’t crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2024, although they appear to be on pace to exceed the $241 million threshold by several million this year. according to RosterResource. The team will see Steven Matz’s $12.5 million salary come off the books this offseason. They could also decline their end of Lucas Giolito’s $19 million joint option, depending on the severity of his recent elbow problem. Liam Hendriks underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in September and will likely see his $12 million mutual option rejected.
If the team has a similar payroll in 2026 after this year’s postseason appearance, the club could make an attempt to re-sign Bregman. The Tigers and Cubs were both involved with Bregman last winter and could have some interest in him as well. However, the Cubs were reportedly only interested in Bregman on a short-term contract, and their incumbent third baseman, Matt Shaw, showed promise in his debut this year.
In contrast, Tigers third basemen ranked 26th in the Majors this year with a 76 wRC+ and would benefit significantly from a player of Bregman’s caliber. If Bregman leaves Boston, the Red Sox could hand the reins to Marcelo Mayer or play for Suarez or Muncy in free agency.
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