Ahead of Market: 10 Things That Will Determine Stock Market Action on Wednesday

Ahead of Market: 10 Things That Will Determine Stock Market Action on Wednesday

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The Indian market closed lower on Tuesday, with the Sensex and Nifty continuing the previous session’s sharp decline, as investors remained tense ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and continued uncertainty over a US trade deal.The S&P BSE Sensex fell 436 points, or 0.51%, to 84,666.28, while the NSE Nifty 50 fell 121 points, or 0.47%, to 25,839.65, with risk appetite still fragile after the steepest decline in over two months.

This is how analysts read the market pulse:

Domestic equities opened lower and extended profit booking due to caution ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed policy decision, rupee weakness, continued FII outflows and continued uncertainty over the US-India trade deal, said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments. He added that IT stocks led the decline while PSU banks, real estate and consumer durables gained, with smallcaps outperforming other indices. “Global sentiment was further weighed on by rising Japanese bond yields and expectations of BoJ tightening at its upcoming December meeting. While markets are largely anticipating a 25 basis point Fed rate cut and a BoJ rate hike, forward guidance to 2026 will be key. In the near term, central bank commentary, currency movements and financial flows will drive sentiment, while domestic macro resilience is expected to provide a cushion against downside risks,” said Nair.

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American markets

Wall Street’s major stock indexes were mixed Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and assessed conflicting signals about the future of U.S. AI chip exports to China.

US President Donald Trump said he would allow Nvidia H200 processors, the second most powerful AI chips, to be shipped to China but would collect a 25% fee for doing so. However, Nvidia shares, which had risen as much as 2% in premarket trading, fell, eventually falling 0.7% after a Financial Times report said Beijing would restrict access to those chips.

The spotlight this week is on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which kicks off on Tuesday and ends with a decision on Wednesday.

Data points to persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, even as secondary indicators suggest the once red-hot labor market is starting to cool in some sectors.

Traders now see an 89.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this week, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, although policymakers remain divided.

European markets

European shares edged higher on Tuesday on gains in financial and industrial stocks, while investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting later in the day curbed the advance.

The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.2% to 579.23 by 0920 GMT. The main regional benchmark indices were mixed, with Germany’s DAX up 0.5% and France’s DAX down 0.2%.

Technical view

The Nifty slipped in the opening hour before finding support around the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous rise, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, adding that it is also noted that the 61.80% retracement level coincides with the 50EMA, indicating the strength of the support zone.

“However, near-term sentiment could remain weak as the index remains below the 21EMA. The RSI is in a bearish crossover, adding to the weak momentum. In the short term, the trend may remain weak with a possible decline towards 25,615/25,535. Resistance is estimated at 25,970-26,000,” said De.

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Most active stocks in terms of turnover

Kaynes Technology (Rs 7,545 crore), InterGlobe Aviation (Rs 5,026 crore), BSE (Rs 2,124 crore), RIL (Rs 1,760 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 1,527 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 1,445 crore) and Mahindra & Mahindra (Rs 1,417 crore) were among the most active stocks by value BSE. Higher activity in a counter in terms of value can help identify the counters with the highest trading turnover per day.

Most active stocks by volume

Vodafone Idea (shares traded: Rs. 88.99 crore), Tata Teleservices (shares traded: Rs. 11.51 crore), Ola Electric Mobility (shares traded: Rs. 8.54 crore), YES Bank (shares traded: Rs. 7.56 crore), Suzlon Energy (shares traded: Rs. 6.48 crore), JP Power (shares traded: Rs. 5.92 crore) and Reliance Power (shares traded: Rs. 3.99 crore) were among the most actively traded stocks on NSE by volume.

Stocks that show buying interest

Shares of Advent Hotels International, Tata Teleservices, Kaynes Technology, Eris Lifesciences, NAVA, Triveni Engineering & Industries and GE Vernova T&D India were among the stocks that witnessed strong buying interest from market participants.

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52 Week High

More than 67 stocks hit their 52-week highs today, while 512 stocks fell to their 52-week lows. Tata Motors CV and Federal Bank were among those that hit 52-week highs.

Stocks see selling pressure

Stocks that witnessed significant selling pressure were eClerx Services, Reliance Infrastructure, Asian Paints, Ather Energy, Coforge, ITC Hotels and Sobha.

Sentiment meter bullish

Market sentiment was bullish. Of the 4,331 shares traded on the BSE on Tuesday, 1,554 shares saw a decline, 2,619 rose, while 158 shares remained unchanged.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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