Adani shares are leading the charge
Shares of Adani Green were the biggest gainers in the pack, followed by Adani Enterprises, which rose 10%. Shares of Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Ports and Adani Total Gas traded 6-8% higher.Global brokerage firm Jefferies named Adani Group companies as among the biggest beneficiaries of the trade deal. Domestic brokerage firm Antique listed Adani Power and Adani Ports as the major beneficiaries of the deal.
Adani Group entities, including Adani Enterprises, Adani Power and Adani Energy Solutions, could benefit from a combination of energy trade ties and infrastructure measures related to deepening bilateral economic ties.
Venezuelan Crude Oil: The RIL Wildcard
While announcing the deal, Trump said India will stop buying Russian crude and buy more crude from the US and Venezuela. The deal will “take effect immediately,” Trump said late Monday after a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in which he offered immediate tariff cuts for India.
India has not received a single shipment of Venezuelan crude since May 2025, but Trump’s comments have raised expectations of a resumption of trade. In 2024, Indian refiners imported an average of about 70,000 barrels per day from Venezuela, with shipments of more than 150,000 barrels per day in two months, according to Kpler shipment data.
“Venezuelan crude is heavy and sour and therefore cheaper and would be of interest to Indian refiners, many of whom can process this type of crude,” said Prashant Vasisht, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings at ICRA Ltd. Reliance Industries’ refineries can process the extremely heavy and sour crude, positioning the conglomerate as a direct beneficiary.
India and the United States have agreed to a trade deal under which mutual tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18%, and the additional 25% duty on purchases of Russian crude will be abolished.
Vasisht noted that “there are ample opportunities for the Indian refining sector, including the US, to buy crude oil as Russian crude accounted for less than 2% of India’s crude oil imports before FY2023.” ICRA estimates that replacing Russian crude with market-priced crude would lead to an increase in the country’s import bill of less than 2%.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, discounted Russian crude flooded the Indian market. Venezuelan oil disappeared from India’s import basket last year, but Trump’s latest signal could pave the way for its return as a meaningful source of supply.
Iranian barrels that once accounted for about 10% of India’s crude oil imports were replaced by supplies from the US and other producers after 2019, demonstrating India’s proven ability to quickly reconfigure crude sourcing.
FII flows: the bigger picture
“One of the key investor concerns about the trade deal should now be addressed. The US is India’s largest goods export destination (US$87 billion, 18% of the total). The prospects for labour-intensive sectors such as textiles are now improving. Combined with the recent major EU, UK and other FTAs signed recently, the INR view could get a substantial boost in the near term – this could act as a positive trigger for FPI flows,” said Jefferies analyst Mahesh Nandurkar.
Also read: Adani Enterprises Q3 results: Cons PAT rises 97 times YoY to Rs 5,627 crore on one-time gain, revenue rises 9%
Market analysts say that sectors that stand to benefit from the trade deal are those with high FII share, such as real estate, telecom, transportation, financial services, healthcare, and also those where overweight/underweight FII is the weakest since September 2018, such as capital goods, financial services, IT services and energy companies.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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