In a world full of hot takes that are actually milder, here’s one that could be sizzling: The Vegas Golden Knights might miss the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Say what? The Golden Knights are currently on pace for 104 points (before games played on December 11, 2025). This is likely enough to get them into the top three of the Pacific Division and a spot in the playoffs if they keep up the pace. But the NHL isn’t that simple.
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We look at four factors and underlying numbers why the Knights should have cause for concern. Will they be the reason they miss the playoffs? In the worst case, yes. But at best, these are issues that could still hinder the potential of this potential competitor.
The injury bug that never goes away
Guess what? The Golden Knights top the NHL in man games lost again to injuries. According to the NHL injury, vizthe Golden Knights sit at the top of the league and have lost total impact. This is not just the number of games missed, but also the quality of the players who missed them. It’s a familiar storyline at this point.
Center William Karlsson, defender Jeremy Lauzon and goaltender Adin Hill are three notables on the injury list. Captain Mark Stone has only played in half the games. Defenseman Noah Hanifin also missed time with a lower-body injury, and center Brett Howden was banged up.
If this all sounds familiar, it’s because the last time the Golden Knights missed the playoffs for the only time in franchise history, it was for the same reason. That 2021-2022 season completely fell apart under the weight of non-stop injuries. Stone was in and out of the lineup and the goaltending carousel never stabilized.
This season already has shades of that. The difference is that the Knights are stronger, deeper and have won enough early victories to stay afloat. Still, the injury bug is one the franchise can’t seem to shake.
Increasing misery seen in one-score games
The Golden Knights have a real problem closing out tight games, and it’s costing them a loss in the standings. Their points percentage in one-goal games is 41.2%, which ranks 26th in the league. That’s a red flag, especially since this was a similar woe last season. Whether it’s late failures, missed opportunities or shaky execution, they let some wins slip.
Their actual goal difference (minus the expected difference) tells the same story. At minus-11, they are tied for the fourth-worst differential. This could be due to bad luck or an underlying problem where the team struggles to convert scoring chances, while also failing to prevent opponents from scoring. It’s not just a matter of the goalkeeper.
Other numbers back this up: a PDO of 0.986 at 5-on-5 means that both the team’s shooting percentage and save percentage are below league average.
If these numbers don’t stabilize soon, the Knights could continue to leave points on the board. And considering how close the playoff picture has become, losing even a few could be the difference.
The division is suddenly more competitive
The days of the Golden Knights ruling their division could be coming to an end. This franchise has won the Pacific Division in five of eight seasons, thanks in part to dominant franchises like the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks. The Knights have points percentages of 77% or better against four division opponents, including these California teams. They are always 56-9-8 against them. But these two keep getting better, and suddenly winning the Pacific seems a lot harder.
The Knights have already dropped their two games against the Ducks (0-1-1). And while they both won against the Sharks (2-0-0), both were one-goal games. The Ducks now lead the division and appear to be the most improved team because of them their most important off-season changes. The Sharks, on the other hand, are flirting with the playoffs and have a near .500 record thanks to their red-hot young talent.
The Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames seem destined for the cellar, while the Seattle Kraken have quickly crashed back to earth after a seemingly promising start. The Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers continue to battle for one of the three division spots.
All in all, we count five to six teams competing. And certainly, the Knights don’t have to win the division to make the playoffs. However, the Pacific is not the only division that has new competition.
New contenders clog the Wild Card Race
The Sharks aren’t the only newcomers on the block. Connor Bedard’s Chicago Blackhawks are also in the thick of the playoff race. The first overall pick is on pace for 52 goals and 113 points, effectively silencing all the haters and making his team a legitimate threat. Not far behind are the Kraken, Utah Mammoth and Winnipeg Jets.
The Kraken may have cooled down, but we can’t quite count them. If the playoffs started now, they would have one of the Western Conference wild card spots. What they lack on offense (last in the NHL in goals), they make up for in defense and clutch play (ranked in the top four in high-danger shooting percentage and high-danger save percentage).
The Mammoth have been inconsistent, but boast a top-10 offense and an intimidating group of young stars. They may be one good goaltender away from making a strong push. Meanwhile, the Jets have made a habit of proving doubters wrong. They’ve won the Presidents’ Trophy and blown their regular-season points projections in three consecutive seasons (projected at 97.5 per season this season). Hockey reference).
There are also the St. Louis Blues. They have fallen behind, but have shown in the past that they can run like no other. Jordan Binnington mainly shows up when things get serious. We won’t be surprised if he bursts into tears closer to the 2026 Winter Olympics in February.
The knights cannot afford to show weakness
This is the NHL, perhaps the most cutthroat league in the world. The line between a contender and a bubble team is razor thin. The Golden Knights are still a strong club, but the landscape has changed. The Ducks and Sharks aren’t freebies, the Central Division has multiple teams pushing for wild-card spots, and the Knights don’t have the health or cushion they used to lean on.
All it takes is one bad month or one strong run from a rival to turn the rankings around. That’s the danger: not that the Knights aren’t talented enough, but that they are vulnerable in a race where the margins are now smaller and many around them have gotten better.
If the situation gets shorter, the Golden Knights could definitely be the odd one out. Nothing is guaranteed in this competition.
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