A short but busy week lies ahead on the United States economic calendar as spot cryptocurrency markets continue to shed recent gains.
January’s CPI came in slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at 2.38% annualized and core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021. This boosted the stock and crypto markets on Friday, but gains in the latter were quickly eroded over the weekend.
“Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist and macroeconomic uncertainty is high,” the Kobeissi letter said, warning of “more volatility this week.”
Economic events February 16 to 20
Traditional markets in the US will be closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday.
There will be an employment update from ADP on Tuesday, followed by January’s retail sales report. More consumer spending data will be seen on Wednesday thanks to delayed December durable goods orders figures.
The minutes of the Fed meeting will also be released on Wednesday, and there will be 10 central bank speaker events that could shed light on future monetary policy decisions.
Investors will also get a first look at economic growth for the fourth quarter on Thursday with the release of the GDP report.
However, the most important data of the week is the December Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report.
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Based on January CPI data, Goldman Sachs increased its PCE outlook. according to to reports.
“We estimate that the PCE core price index rose 0.40% in January,” economists said.
The growth forecasts were due to rising prices for consumer electronics and IT, which weigh more heavily in the PCE than in the CPI. A global shortage of RAM and storage due to the demand for AI data centers has caused the prices of computers and components to skyrocket.
“So far, the data doesn’t offer much reason for the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in March,” The Street wrote.
The CME Fed Watch Tool has a 90% chance that rates will remain unchanged.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets have lost late gains from last week, with total capitalization falling 2.5% in the past 24 hours, falling to $2.41 trillion.
Bitcoin failed to hold above $70,000 long and retreated to $68,300 in early Asian trading on Monday. The item has remained in range for the past ten days.
Ether prices have fallen hard, down 5% from nearly $2,100 to $1,950 at the time of writing, while altcoins continue to bleed out.
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