In a Jan. 23 survey remarkMatt Mena of 21Shares sees 2026 as a “defining turning point” in which XRP’s valuation becomes “entrenched in its institutional fundamentals” following the August 2025 settlement that ended the SEC case overhang. The company says the resolution removed a structural constraint that had limited XRP’s upside “regardless of underlying utility,” allowing the market to reprice to a new all-time high of $3.66 and then consolidate with the former $2.00 ceiling acting as support.
XRP Price Predictions for 2026
21Shares describes the post-resolution regime as a more difficult environment for the asset: fewer narrative choices, more responsibility. Now that the legal cloud has cleared, the note states that XRP “can no longer rely on courtroom hype or regulatory uncertainty to drive its valuation or excuse its underperformance,” introducing a “sell the news” risk if usage does not scale and the market reassesses the asset based on realized adoption rather than legal relief.
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The company believes that clarity expands the addressable buyer base and product footprint in the US “US-based institutions. Regulated funds and ETP issuers. Banks and payments companies.” According to 21Shares, these channels were previously limited by compliance risks, and their return marks a new phase of price discovery.
The second pillar is flows. 21Shares says US spot The note leans heavily on the supply-and-demand argument, linking ETF absorption to what it characterizes as unusually tenacious retail positioning.
“Forex reserves are at a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. Demand for institutional ETFs is clashing with a community that refuses to sell.” That clash, the company argues, is the “primary driver” of a potentially non-linear repricing, while also warning that reflexivity works both ways as inflows slow.
To make the reflexivity case, 21Shares points to the first year of US Bitcoin spot ETFs as a template, citing nearly $38 billion in net inflows and a price move from about $40,000 to $100,000 within twelve months. The difference, she says, is liquidity overhead:
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The third pillar is utility, with 21Shares positioning XRPL as “financial plumbing” for tokenization and stablecoin settlement. The note highlights RLUSD’s growth to over 37,000 holders and a market cap increase of over 1,800% from $72 million to $1.38 billion in less than a year, while XRPL expands DeFi TVL nearly 100x to over $100 million in two years. It also points to the Multi-Purpose Tokens standard as a mechanism for institutions to issue RWAs with embedded metadata and compliance rules.
Still, 21Shares notes execution risks: progress is “evolutionary, not explosive,” and XRPL is leading the way in developer and user engagement, citing competition for RWA flows from Canton, Solana and other ecosystems.
The 2026 peak ranges modeled by 21Shares assume a base case of $2.45 (50% probability), a bull case of $2.69 (30%), and a bear case of $1.60 (implied -16%), with the key swing factors being continued ETF inflows, meaningful tokenization volumes, and the maintenance of RLUSD’s institutional traction.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.8792.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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