This week we take a look at Litmus Test, the 1 ¼-long winner of the $200,500 Los Alamitos Futurity on December 13 at Los Alamitos. The litmus test scored 10 points and rose to second place on the The road to the Kentucky Derby standings with a total of 19 qualifying points.
Race summary: Litmus Test, an $875,000 yearling purchase in 2024, pushed the pace in his career debut Aug. 16, 2025, at Del Mar, pulling away late to win by three-quarters of a length. He was then challenged against top competition, finishing fourth by 4 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in September and third by five lengths in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland. He proved he was not outmatched at Grade 1 level in those two starts, which were won by the highly regarded Brant and Ted Noffey respectively, but Litmus Test was no threat to either winner at that point in his career either.
The litmus test was sent off as a long shot of 21.70-1 in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. His resulting fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup doesn’t jump off the page as a big step forward at first glance. He was beaten by just 1 ¾ lengths in the defeat and set new career best speed figures.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brought Litmus Test back after a six-week layoff in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and the Nyquist colt continued to improve with a pro victory just off the pace as the 3-5 favorite under jockey Juan Hernandez. He took aim at pacer Provenance entering the stretch, defeated that willing opponent and held off a late bid from number two Blacksmith to prevail. He covered 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.38 for his first stakes win.
“He was in a good spot – he looked like he was relaxed. You could see from the back that he was in control of the race,” Baffert said. “He’s still a little green, but Juan just told me the further the better for him.”
Speed figures: After earning Equibase Speed Figures in the 91-92 range for each of his first three starts, Litmus Test made a significant jump to 111 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His Equibase Speed Figure dropped a bit in the Los Alamitos Futurity to a 103.
Beyer’s speed figures indicate a linear progression for the litmus test thus far: 78-82-89-95-96. The 95 achieved in the Breeders’ Cup and the 96 for the Los Alamitos Futurity are high-quality marks for a 2-year-old in December. He paired his top speed with six weeks of rest, so Litmus Test is in line to take another step forward in his next start if he gets the same amount of rest.
Running Style: The litmus test set the pace and faded late in the Breeders’ Futurity, but in each of his other four races he has pushed or stalked the pace. In the Los Alamitos Futurity, that tactical speed helped him overcome a somewhat slow start by advancing from the inside after a few horses had run wide in the first corner. The Litmus Trial came up to sneak up on Provenance from about a way back and set up a dream trip. Tactical speed is extremely beneficial in races like the Kentucky Derby, when you’re facing a field of up to twenty three-year-olds.
Family tree notes: Litmus Test is from the sixth crop of 2015 champion 2-year-old male Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and sire of U.S. champions Immersive and Vequist, as well as 2025 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Nysos, 2025 Preakness runner-up Gosger and multiple Grade 1 winner Randomized.
Litmus Test was produced by the Malibu Moon mare Study Hard, a full sister (same sire and dam) to multiple stakes winner Sweet August Moon. Study Hard remained unplaced in three races.
Derby potential: I had largely written off the Litmus Test after the Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland, but the bay colt is a reminder that racehorses develop and progress individually, and he surprised me in his last two races. Specifically, his Beyer speed numbers in those two starts (95-96) are elite for a 2-year-old Thoroughbred in December and he looks like a colt who is learning and improving with experience.
On the other hand, the Litmus Test didn’t end quickly in the Los Alamitos Futurity with a final sixteenth of a mile in 6.53 seconds and a final five-sixteenths of a mile in about 31 ½ seconds. He will need to show more late punch. In my opinion, December’s Litmus Test ranks in the second tier of Kentucky Derby hopefuls while moving in the right direction. I’m not ready to place a future bet on him just yet, but the litmus test is definitely worth keeping a close eye on.
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