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Among the 24 price predictions that ResiClub tracks in our latest house price summary for 2026the average forecast is a +1.43% increase in US home prices in 2026.
Please note that the roundup mentioned above looks at nationally aggregated home price forecasts. On a regional and district basis, house price fluctuations can differ significantly from national figures. For example, on an annual basis, U.S. home prices as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index have increased by +0.1%, while home prices in the Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Connecticut metro area have increased by +4.6% and home prices in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas metro area have decreased by -6.0% over the same time frame.
To better understand how regional home prices may vary in 2026, ResiClub contacted economists at Zillow – whose forecast of a +2.1% increase in US home prices in calendar 2026 is slightly above the average model – and economists at Moody’s Analytics – whose forecast of a +0.8% increase in US home prices in 2026 is slightly more bearish than the average model – to update their forecasts for metro-level home prices to collect.
Let’s take a look at the metro level predictions.
When we published our last summary of national home price forecasts for 2026, Zillow forecast +1.2% for 2026; However, over the weekend they increased this slightly to +2.1%.
Zillow economists write:
“With supply no longer as tight as it was during the pandemic, price gains are likely to remain modest. Buyers should see a little more time and leverage as they shop, while sellers can still build equity, just at a slower pace than in recent peak years… Looking ahead, Zillow project sales will strengthen in 2026 as mortgage rates lower and affordability improves. Existing home sales are expected to reach 4.3 million next year, up from 5.2%. After two slow years, the recovery is expected to be led by the South East and the West, where demand is more interest rate sensitive and is starting to recover as borrowing costs decline.”
US home prices, as measured by the Moody’s repeat sales index, will rise just +0.8% in calendar year 2026, followed by a +1.5% increase in 2027, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi’s forecast.
When I recently asked Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, about his updated home price forecast, he said his long-term outlook for the U.S. housing market remains largely unchanged: He expects a prolonged period of stagnation as affordability gradually improves. Following the historic rise in prices during the pandemic housing boom and the subsequent mortgage rate shock, Zandi believes resale/sales of existing homes will likely remain frozen for several years to come.
‘Affordability must be restored so that housing construction regains its mojo’ Zandi told ResiClub a few months ago. “Flat house prices [adjusted for inflation] is the healthiest way forward – it’s the only way incomes can catch up.”
Zandi expects nominal national home prices to move sideways over the next 12 to 18 months, with local variation: markets in the South and West, where construction has been stronger and showing some modest declines, while tight inventory markets in the Northeast and Midwest remain steadier.
“The worst of the housing market pain could be now and in the next six to nine months. After that, things will start to feel a little better, but not good,” Zandi told ResiClub in October. “The housing market will heal… but it will take time – and a lot of patience.”
Zandi predicts that US home prices will rise roughly in line with inflation over the next decade, meaning no “real” home price growth will occur. [adjusted for inflation] house price increases for about 10 years.
“We expect the number of homes for sale to increase steadily as more existing homeowners need to sell for demographic reasons – death, divorce, children, job change – and lower mortgage rates will ease their interest rate squeeze. [potentially] Lower rates will also support housing demand, but the increase in housing supply will be even greater, which will weigh on house price increases,” Zandi tells ResiClub.
What is ResiClub’s opinion?
The housing market still works via a cyclic cooling phasewith many of the nation’s fastest-growing Sun Belt boomtowns undergoing a deeper recalibration after greater overheating during the pandemic housing boom. This adjustment period will not last forever, and the fundamentals of long-term growth – such as rising population – in many of these southern markets remain attractive. However, ResiClub believes the market is still within that normalization window in 2026 (but we are getting closer to leaving it).
In broad termsHousing markets where inventories (i.e. active listings) have risen well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen softer/weaker home price growth (or even outright declines) over the past 42 months since the pandemic housing market boom subsided. Conversely, housing markets, where inventories remain well below pre-pandemic levels in 2019, have generally seen more resilient home price growth over the past 42 months.
Using active inventory/months of supply as a near-term guide, we expect the greatest price resilience in 2026 to occur in the Midwest and Northeast markets, with the greatest price softness still likely in Gulf markets such as Austin and Punta Gorda, Florida. (I think both Zillow and Moody’s are a little too optimistic about Southwest Florida in particular, which I think is still in correction mode, although it’s starting to create some interesting buying opportunities.)
Regardless of what the regional stock is like (see our latest monthly stock update here) or regional house prices (see our latest monthly house price update here) in 2026, we will keep a close eye on the trends to keep you informed of any shifts.
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