After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital in predicting future fantasy success of potential starting receivers, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year. Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find herethis RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that previous NFL fantasy superstars have exhibited.
The goal of these analytical models is to outperform tap capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers try to collect the most fantasy points. NFL teams try to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th respectively.
You can find last year’s RB1 model after the 2025 draft here. Our model largely matched the draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also ranking in the top 7 of the model. A major outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL ranking him 26th among all running backs.
Now on to the class of 2026.
Fam, I have bad news. This 2026 running back draft lesson is not good. It’s not bad. No. It’s downright horrible. In these model series, I can usually easily find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade.
However, keep in mind that in this first group of five running backs during the countdown, some may not have been drafted.
15. Le’Veon MossTexas A&M | RB1 model score: -23
Based on historical comps, Le’Veon Moss’ RB1 Model score of -12 gives him a 2.2% chance of at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical players with similar RB1 model scores:
The good
Iron sharpens iron. If you want to be the best, compete against the best. SEC running backs handle this game in and game out. This reasoning is why SEC running backs earn extra points than others in our RB1 model.
The bad
Missed tackles per attempt is one of the most important predictive metrics that feed the RB1 model. That’s where Class 26 really falls short. Last year, 27 running backs had a career MTF/A above 20%. This year only 9 do so. Moss lacks this threshold, although not as much as several others in the class.
The ugly one
While running backs are most valued IRL for their rushing acumen, their path to consistency in fantasy is largely dependent on their receiving. The most consistent perennial top fantasy artists are the Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Devon Achane archetypes. Moss doesn’t give you much in the passing game. He averaged just 15.5 receiving yards per game in his best season in college.
14. Jaydn Ott, Oklahoma | RB1 model score: -12
Based on historical comps, Jaydn Ott’s RB1 Model score of -23 gives him an 8.0% chance of at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical players with similar RB1 model scores:
- Dwayne McBride
- Kind regards, McCormick
The good
Ott has one of the best age-appropriate productions in this entire class. After his sparkling sophomore year in California, Jadyn Ott was on track to become a first-round Dynasty Rookie draft pick. He then suffered a steady stream of injuries. In 2024, it was his ankle and knee that limited him to ten injury-marred games. In 2025, Ott opted for a new start and a different environment in Oklahoma. He then suffered a shoulder injury during training camp, which left him out of the running back rotation.
He showed his receiving prowess in both his freshman and sophomore seasons. He ranks first in the class in college career yards per route, second in receptions per game and third in receiving yards per game.
The bad
Despite Ott’s tremendous early production, he still ranked just 14th of the 15 running backs in these rankings in career yards per carry. This did not earn him any points towards his overall RB1 model score.
The ugly one
Ott’s college career went in the opposite direction of the traditional curve. Although injuries were a major contributor, Ott should still have been able to break into the Oklahoma running back rotation in his senior year. Unfortunately, he didn’t, posting just 1.4 fantasy points per game, costing him 10 points off his overall RB1 model score. Ott’s PFF rushing grade of 62.1 last season was the worst overall in the class, resulting in another loss of 10 points from his overall model score. Finally, after contact, he ranked last in the top 15 overall running backs in the model in career yards.
13. Demond Claiborne, Wake Forest | RB1 model score: -7
Based on historical comps, Demond Claiborne’s RB1 Model score of -7 gives him an 8.0% chance of at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical players with similar RB1 model scores:
The good
Nothing in Claiborne’s analytical profile is striking. He screams JAG (Just Another Guy). Yet he has nothing surprising either. So, in a bad overall league, the good thing about Claiborne is that he doesn’t have absolutely terrible analytics. He is middle of the road in most things. He seems like a perfect practice player who can be elevated before a game if the top two running backs are out.
The bad
Claiborne is a smaller back. He is listed at 195 pounds. The NFL likes the running backs in the 215 range. While lighter backs have become more acceptable thanks to Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane, it’s still a thing in his overall profile.
12. Roman Hemby, Indiana | RB1 model score: -3
Based on historical comps, Roman Hemby’s RB1 model rating of -3 gives him an 8.0% chance of at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical players with similar RB1 model scores:
The good
Roman Hemby was the leading rusher on the national champion Indiana Hoosiers. After spending four years at Maryland, Hemby proved to be an integral part of Indiana’s championship machine. We know earlier in this article that skill receiving is the key to sustainable fantasy success. Hemby has that ability. His 26.8 receiving yards per game in his best season ranked fourth among all running backs in this class expected to be drafted. His career yards per route of 1.14 ranked fifth overall. His 3.3 receptions per game ranked third. These receiving categories together contributed 27 points to his overall RB1 model score.
The ugly one
Wait… if Hemby received 27 points in these receiving categories, how did he end up with an overall RB1 model score of -3, you ask? Ehhh. Unfortunately, as a running back, the NFL considers it fairly important to be able to run the ball effectively. Well, unlike Claiborne before him, who was mediocre at just about everything, Hemby excels in the receiving game, but he’s pretty awful as a rusher.
Hemby’s career missed tackles, forced per attempt, rate of 16.0% ranked last among running backs expected to be drafted. This is an important predictive measure. The top six in this one metric over the past three years are Trey Benson, Bijan Robinson, Tyrone Tracy, Ashton Jeanty and Bucky Irving, each well above 30%. Hemby also misses our top running back thresholds of yards after contact 3.2 (threshold 3.5), Breakaway run% 6.0 (threshold 8.5%) and career yards per carry 4.9 (threshold 5.5).
Perhaps Hemby’s contrasting performances in receiving and rushing are better for his overall outlook on securing a role, and he can profile as a third back player. For that to happen, he would have to improve his pass protection, as he only received a 37.6 PFF pass blocking grade.
11. Robert Henry Jr., UTSA | RB1 model score: 0
Based on historical comps, Robert Henry Jr.’s RB1 Model score of 0 gives him an 11.1% chance of at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical players with similar RB1 model scores:
- Dylan Laube
- Kaleel Mullings
The good
Henry is one of the more explosive backs in this class, as evidenced by his 10.5% breakout percentage (15+ yards). This result earned him 7 points against his overall RB1 model score. Henry was also one of 9 running backs in this class to break the 20% missed tackles per attempt threshold. Anything below that is a non-starter for me to consider the player for Dynasty Rookie Drafts. It’s not great. Just a solid number that doesn’t disqualify him.
The bad
He doesn’t offer much in the receiving game. His best season yielded just 10.4 receiving yards per game. This subtracted 5 points from his overall RB1 model score. Furthermore, Henry Jr. no early explanation. The best prospects are the ones the NFL considers talented enough to leave college early.
The ugly one
The UTSA Roadrunners participate in the American Athletic Conference. When you compete at a lower level, it is easier to achieve better results in the advanced metrics that the RB1 model measures. For that reason, Henry earns 8 points less in this category than a running back competing against the top prospects in college football, such as those in the SEC.
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