December. This is a market heavy comment. Come along, please ask questions, and if you think a friend would find this interesting, please share it with them.
This month: gratitude, trust, looking ahead, noisy days at the market, four things I pay attention to, headwind and tailwind.
First, a reflection of gratitude.
I have a lot to be grateful for: wife, children, grandchildren, shelter and food. As I’ve gotten older (thankfully not an adult), I find it valuable to notice the victories. The things that matter. A recent simple highlight: Our girls spent time together one Sunday morning, and my wife and I had time together, and then we met them for brunch. Just the four of us; something rare that I am still grateful for a few weeks later. Small victories matter.
As a reminder, I write these notes to you every month, not for brokers or lenders.
It’s a good time to buy or sell! Remember those angry and insincere words that real estate associations spammed us with so many years ago? Things like “date the rate, marry the house.”
It might be a good time to buy. It could be a good time to sell. There is no universal advice or guidance. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying to you or selling you something.
But first safety and why you should trust me.
I do this every day, I love what I do and work every day to learn something new that is relevant to my customers. I’m focused on the long term, not the short. Next year will be my 25th year as a real estate agent, and while my wife insists I’ll never grow up, I’d like to think I’ve grown a little wiser.
Recently I was talking to clients about what they may need to do once they purchase their home. They wanted a house. They wanted certainty. And they haven’t formulated that specifically. I formulated it with a question:
The first night you spend here after closing, will you be happy with just pizza or will you think about the things the house needs before you can relax?
There is no perfect house. Every home needs something, whether it’s cleaning, painting, a new deck, new roof, new HVAC, updating kitchens or bathrooms. Each buyer or seller must decide what is “good enough” or “too much to handle.”
Why looking ahead is more important than looking back
Looking back is useful to provide context for the future, but only to a point. Today and tomorrow are more important than yesterday.
2026 will be determined less by what happened in 2025 and more by inventory and demographics than by mortgage rates and history. I look ahead.
One of the best quotes I’ve read about nostalgia comes from John Hodgman: “Normally, I think of nostalgia as a toxic impulse. It’s the interconnected, longing delusion that (a) the past was better (it wasn’t) and (b) it can be recaptured (it can’t)…”
Key conclusions for the future:
- Buyers: Patience can be your friend. But be prepared to make your decision to buy or not to buy efficiently; It is better to decide quickly not to bid than to see the home go under contract before you have made time to view and assess the home.
- Salespeople: More than you’ve ever experienced, pricing and preparation matter. Excellent data and market analyzes are crucial.
- Comp: When assessing homes, we naturally look at sold homes. Now we also look at the withdrawn and expired offers and the active competition that is both under contract and not. Yesterday matters less than today and tomorrow.
Days on Market – used to be noise. Now they are important
During the early days of the Covid market, the timeline was simple:
- Preparation, photos, maps, etc.
- Coming soon to the MLS on Monday.
- The performances start on Thursday or Friday
- Sellers will review the offers on Monday.
- Days at the market were noisy; now days on the market make sense.
- In Charlottesville + Albemarle, 5,038 existing homes were under contract from 1/1/2021 to 12/31/2024, the average market days were 6: Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, then under contract on Tuesday.
- To date, 1,440 contracts have been ratified in the MLS. The average number of days on market is 12,653 since 6/1/25. The average DOM is 23; also 23 since 9/1/25.
- 6 to 23 is a huge shift; speed is no longer guaranteed.
The market at the moment
A quick look at this small window of resale homes on the MLS from 10/01 to 12/09 in Charlottesville + Albemarle
- New mentions: 264 this year; 277 last year. Fewer new entries.
- New contracts: 259 this year with an average market day of 30 and an average price of $517,000. Last year: 261 contracts, 20 days on market and an average price of $528,000.
- And the soldwhich reflects contract activity approximately 45-75 days prior. This year: 281 sold, 23 days on market, average price of $552,000. Last year: 272, 14 days on market, $540,000 was the average price.
Four things I’m watching now and in 2026
- Relistings and anticipating relistings. We’re seeing more deletions than I can remember ever seeing. So far this year, 125 have been withdrawn. Last year there were seventeen. Is this a good way to evaluate this segment? I think it’s good enough. If 100 of those 125 hit the market next year, they will impact the market significantly, especially if they hit the market at lower prices.
- Price reductions and patience. How motivated can the salespeople be? How patient will buyers be now that they have choices and options?
- Contracts and market days. Did you know there is a movement among one or two major national brokerage firms to remove public display of market days? Yes, insane. How quickly do homes go under contract? And how many price reductions are needed?
- New entries: When did they buy and for how much? This is a big one. For the people whose only experience in residential real estate is setting prices based on what they want/need to make, a more data-driven market is a huge shift. Think about it: if you bought in 2017, sold in 2023 and made a big profit and bought another house, and life happens in 2026, you might not be able to sell without losing money. That’s a huge change, which could lead to lower inventory as these sellers can choose to stay or rent. (What are the sellers’ expectations likely?)
2026 quick thoughts
Headwind:
- Seller expectations. Let’s say they bought for $600,000 in 2002, are ready to move, and want to earn $750,000 to take the next steps. But their neighbor just hit the market for $699,000. What are they going to do? Price at $750,000 and hoping for an offer? Do you plan to reduce after 30 days? Choose to stay? Can they afford to keep the house, rent it and buy the next house? Or rent wherever they go? Related: Sellers’ anchors for high prices.
- Buyers: Fear is not your friend. Buying for less than 3 to 5 years? Maybe not the ideal time to buy. If you buy your house tomorrow for $675,000, and it will be worth $650,000 in two months, who cares if you don’t sell? But if you do have to sell, choices will have to be made. Related: *Where* is the house, not necessarily *What* is the house
- The economy and the lack of data. This is big. We need data. Can you imagine a world without a central database of home listings that we use to evaluate home prices? Now imagine that for the American economy. The deliberate, purposeful, and strategic destruction of the federal government’s data collection and dissemination is unspeakably harmful and would be criminal in any other world. How is anyone supposed to make a reasonable, logical decision in a vacuum? Mood?
Wind at your back:
- People need housing and shelter.
- The mortgage interest is reasonable.
- UVA remains the core of Central Virginia’s economy.
- NGIC and DIA will continue to exist.
- Astra Zeneca
The year in which the buyers’ market returns. Maybe. I will confirm in 2027 what happens in 2026. And writing 2027 feels like I’m writing a fiction.
2026 could be the year the market shifts to a buyer’s market.
What I read
- Housing and market shifts
This is a fraction of what I read about the local, regional and national real estate markets.
- Work, people and technology
- 3. Places, climate and how we live
- Curiosities and tangents (always fun stuff)
What I listen to
#year #buyers #turn #Jims #note #December