The Dodgers have risen to the challenge thus far in the playoffs, posting a 9-1 record en route to a second straight World Series appearance. They completed a sweep of the top-seeded Brewers last Friday, giving them a week off before the World Series starts tomorrow. The other side of the bracket was much more contentious, as the top two seeds in the AL faced off for a date with the Dodgers. The Mariners won the first two games of the series in Toronto, but the Blue Jays returned the favor in Seattle, winning a Game 7 thriller to advance to their first World Series since 1993. The Jays finished one game ahead of the Dodgers at 94-68, so the series begins north of the border. The Dodgers took two of three from the Blue Jays in LA in August, winning the first two games 5-1 and 9-1 before the bullpen allowed three runs in the final two innings, leading to a 5-4 loss in the final.
The Blue Jays were the top seed in the AL and opened their postseason with a 3-1 victory over the Yankees in the ALDS. The offense was tied at one in that series, reaching double figures in the first two games with nine home runs in the four games. The offense slowed a bit in the ALCS against a strong Seattle pitching staff, but still scored over 5 runs per game (thanks to a 13-run performance in Game 3). They hit 11 home runs in the series, which is almost as many as the Dodgers hit in 10 postseason games (13).
Chad predicted the series roster and rotation plan earlier this week. The rotation plan seems pretty set, but the lack of left-handed starters for Toronto poses an interesting question about the offense.
Dodger offense
The Dodger offense hasn’t been great this postseason. They are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have a team OPS of .770. Shohei Ohtani had a very tough postseason at the plate until Game 4 against Milwaukee, when he put together probably the best individual game ever with three home runs and six shutout innings on the mound. They scored 15 points in the four games against the Brewers and haven’t scored more than five points in a game since the Wild Card round.
Brewer’s pitching staff did quite well against the Dodger offense. Mookie Betts had a great postseason heading into the series, but went 2-for-15 in the series and his .478 OPS was the lowest on the team except Alex Bell (which only had one AB). Andy Pages continued his postseason struggles, going 2-for-11 with three walks, though he did have a pair of sac-bunts that led to Dodger runs. Max Muncy had only one hit in 12 at bats, but it was a home run and he almost had a second robbed by Sal Frelick That led to a very strange double play. Will Smith went 6-for-15 in the series, with all six hits being singles. The Hernandez’s cooled off a bit at the plate, combining to go 7-for-29 with a Teoscar Hernández Homer and two Enrique Hernández doubles. Tommy Edman led the team with seven strikeouts, but went 5-for-15 and led the team with four RBIs. Freddie Vrijman entered the series 5-for-23 in the postseason and had a solid series, getting on base every game and three of his four hits in the series going for extra bases. As I mentioned before, Ohtani really struggled at the plate for a three-home run game in the deciding Game 4.
Dodger pitching
The Dodger pitching staff has carried them this postseason and was absolutely dominant against Milwaukee. The worst start came from the Game 3 starter Tyler Glasnowwho allowed three hits, three walks and a run over 5 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts. That was the worst. Blake Snell started the series with eight shutout innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts and was somehow outdone by Game 2 starter Yoshinobu Yamamotowho threw a complete game shutout. Ohtani finished the game with six shutout innings in Game 4 and did go back out for the seventh, but allowed a walk and a single without recording an out. Ohtani has the worst ERA of the four Dodger starters this postseason at 2.25 after a bit of a rough first outing against the Phillies. The Dodgers appear to be pitching the same rotation in the World Series, with Tuesday announcing that Snell would start Game 1 and Yamamoto would start Game 2. Games 3 and 4 haven’t been announced yet, but it makes sense to keep Glasnow and Ohtani in that order.
The Dodger bullpen was barely used against Milwaukee, and those that were were generally pretty solid. Anthony Banda And Alex Vesia had identical pitching lines for the series. Both went 1 2/3 innings over two outings, allowing one hit and no runs with one strikeout and no walks. Roki Sasaki And Blake Treinen each pitched in three of the four games. Sasaki had his first trouble as a closer in Game 1, issuing two walks, an automatic double and a sacrifice fly and being unable to complete the inning. He pitched a perfect ninth in Game 3 and went back-to-back days for the first time, closing out the series and allowing a hit in an otherwise flawless ninth. Treinen replaced Sasaki in Game 1 and immediately loaded the bases with a walk, but was conceded Brice Turang to strike out after almost hitting him to score the tying run. He retired both batters he faced in Game 3 but struggled in Game 4, allowing a double and a walk before striking out and being pulled. Banda came in and allowed a ground ball that scored a run, but escaped further damage. They didn’t really have any use for the long relievers in the pen, like Emmet Sheehan, Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski And Clayton Kershaw did not appear in the series. If they are on the roster, they should all be very fresh for the World Series. Tanner ScottHis status is still up in the air. The Jays are fairly balanced between right-handers and left-handers in their lineup, but the two biggest threats are right-handed. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers dropped one of the lefty guys in favor of someone like Edgardo Henriquez or Will Klein.
Blue Jays lineup
The Jays’ lineup was historic this postseason. They’ve had eight players with 40 or more plate appearances this postseason Alejandro Kirk‘s .752 OPS is the lowest among them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a cool .442/.510/.930 slash line in 11 postseason games and has six home runs, six walks and just three strikeouts in 51 plate appearances. Ernie Clemens Doesn’t have the big dinger numbers, but still has an OPS of 1.063 and just two strikeouts in 45 plate appearances. George Springer is 11-for-46, but nine of those eleven hits yielded extra bases with five doubles and four home runs. Addison Barger And Daulton Varsho are also OPSing over .800 and have two home runs each. They did all this without starting shortstop Bo Bichettewho hasn’t played since September 6 due to a knee sprain but is expected to be back for the World Series.
Among playoff teams, the Dodger offense’s 23.7 percent strikeout rate is third-best. The Padres were second-best at 19 percent in their three playoff games, and the Blue Jays scored just 14.8 percent of the time. That figure would be the lowest among playoff teams in at least the past decade, with the 2017 Rockies and their 15 percent being the only other team below 17 percent. This isn’t exactly shocking, as they also finished the regular season with the lowest team strikeout rate at 17.8 percent. The Jays had the highest batting average and on-base percentage in baseball this season, but only finished seventh in slugging. They also stole the third-fewest bases in baseball this season (77) and have stolen just one base in 11 games this postseason.
It’s almost impossible to expect the Dodger pitching to remain as dominant against an offense like this. Called some guy Mike wrote a breakdown of the power versus strength matchup between the Dodger pitching and the Toronto offense. The Brewers were also a high-contact team that didn’t throw a single strike, and the Dodger pitchers shut them down. Toronto poses a much bigger problem with their rare combination of contact and slug.
Blue Jays pitcher
Toronto’s pitching staff hasn’t exactly been strong this postseason. Kevin Gausman was their ace this season, playing the role in four playoff games, allowing four runs and ten hits in 18 innings. He struck out just 12 in those 18 innings and walked nine, but was able to limit the Yankee and Mariner offense. Rookie Trey Yesavage came out of the gate strong with 5 1/3 no-hit innings against the Yankees with 11 strikeouts and only one walk, but allowed five runs in four innings in Game 2 against Seattle. He bounced back with 5 2/3 innings in Game 6, allowing six hits and two runs. Shane Bieber has also made three starts and earned exactly two in each. They were aggressive in pulling him, as his first start lasted just 2 2/3 innings and his Game 7 start on Monday lasted just 3 2/3 innings. Max Scherzer was left off the ALDS roster, but got the start in Game 4 of the ALCS in Seattle. He allowed two runs and three hits in 5 2/3, but walked four.
One way or another, the Dodgers may have a bullpen advantage in this series. Closer Jeff Hoffman was outstanding with three hits and one run allowed in 7 1/3 innings over six appearances and 12 strikeouts with only two walks. Chris Bassitt pitched twice against Seattle and didn’t allow a baserunner in 2 2/3 innings. Louis Varland has somehow pitched in 10 of their 11 playoff games and has a 3.27 ERA, allowing four runs and eight hits in 11 innings. Seranthony Dominguez has an ERA of 4.05 in seven appearances, and the other seven Toronto relievers who have appeared have ERAs above 6. Toronto’s bullpen as a whole has an ERA of 5.52 and has allowed 11 home runs in 45 2/3 innings.
Unlike the other teams the Dodgers played in October, the Blue Jays’ staff is extremely right-handed. They only had 20 starts from left-handed pitchers all season (Eric Lauer had 15, Easton Lucas had five). They had Lauer in the bullpen in each of the first two rounds and he struggled in the ALDS, but pitched a scoreless inning in the ALCS. Left-handers Mason Fluharty And Brendon Klein were also on the ALCS roster and an old friend Justin Brouwel did appear in the ALDS, but was omitted against Seattle.
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Overall, this should be a pretty tight series. The Dodgers should have the advantages on paper in all phases, but Toronto’s offense has been wild this postseason while the Dodgers sputtered. The Dodger pitching staff is one of the best at striking out batters, and the Blue Jays are getting no strikeouts. All the attention will be on Vladito, Springer, Ohtani and Betts, which all but guarantees that the series will come down to Edman and Joey Loperfido or some rubbish.
Here is the schedule with Games 5-7 if needed. All times are PT and shown on Fox.
Friday October 24
LAD @ TOR, match 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Saturday October 25
LAD @ TOR, match 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Monday October 27
TOR @ LAD, match 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Tuesday October 28
TOR @ LAD, match 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Wednesday October 29
TOR @ LAD, match 5:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Friday October 31
LAD @ TOR, match 6:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Saturday November 1
LAD @ TOR, match 7:00 PM – 5:00 PM
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