Zen and the Art of Fantasy Baseball: Isaac Paredes and My Struggle with “Too Much Deliberate Will”

The Zen moment:

This week I look at one of the inspiration texts for this column, that of Eugen Herrigel Zen in the art of archeryfor help in continuing the path of the ‘Great Teaching’.

As you might imagine, Herrigel’s book is about archery. But more precisely, the book is about him – or about you, or about me. To become a master archer, Herrigel first had to master himself and learn the act of ‘feeling’ [him]that I am carried through it as in a dream” (Herrigel 47). The ‘it’ in the sentence refers to the practice of archery, but I actually think the ‘it’ might as well be ‘him’.

Like any student who encounters the unique teaching style of a master archer (in the Zen lineage), Herrigel refused some of his teacher’s initial suggestions. For example, he could not understand that the purpose of the shot was not to hit the target – even though piercing the bullseye would in fact be a consequence of reaching the actual target. He says he wondered about the “relaxed drawing of the bow, the relaxed holding at the point of highest tension, the relaxed release of the shot, the relaxed reception of the recoil – did not all this serve the great purpose of hitting the target, and was not this the reason why we learned archery with so much effort and patience?” (29).

The Master tried to correct Herrigel’s misunderstanding and told him, ‘Don’t think about what to do, don’t think about how to do it! […] The shot will only go smoothly if the archer himself is surprised. It must be as if the bowstring suddenly severed the thumb holding it. You must not open the right hand on purpose” (29).

Herrigel responded to the Master’s advice with weeks of failure, again. And again. And again. Finally the Master asked him, “Do you know why you cannot wait for the shot and why you run out of breath before it comes? The right shot at the right time does not come because you do not let go of yourself. You do not wait for fulfillment, but brace yourself for failure. As long as that is the case, you have no choice but to summon something yourself that should happen independently of you, and as long as you speak it, your hand will not open properly – like a child’s hand. Your hand does not crack open like the skin of a ripe fruit” (30).

Still confused? Herrigel understandably felt the same way. And I do that too. The master’s brief summary of archery doesn’t necessarily make things clearer for me: “The art […] is aimless, aimless! The more persistently you try to learn how to shoot the arrow to hit the target, the less you will succeed and the further you will retreat. What stands in your way is that your will is far too stubborn. You think that what you don’t do won’t happen” (31).

Hey? Intentional will? Open like the skin of a ripe fruit? Waiting for fulfillment? If you feel confused, I am with you. Bear with me as I try to make some sense of this. As I understand the Master, when we truly practice the art (whatever art we are practicing at any given time), we are so connected to the techniques of the art that we no longer need to think about them. In fact, only when we are so connected to the art that we stop thinking about the techniques – and instead focus on being deep and authentic in the moment of breathing and letting go of expectations, hopes and fears – can we achieve our goals. The goal is mastery of the self – mastery of the art will necessarily follow as the self is mastered.

Easy enough, right?

How the heck does this apply to fantasy baseball?

If the art of archery isn’t actually about the components of the task, then for the sake of argument I’m going to assume that the “art” of fantasy baseball isn’t about the components either. Of course, that doesn’t mean player analysis isn’t important, or doesn’t build strategy, or understand underlying data, or try to discover ADP values. All of these things are, at least in my eyes, essential to success in this game. But I am also aware that I think too much about my analysis, strategy, the underlying data and especially what I consider to be ADP values.

Pop quiz. What do these three players have in common: Cody Bellinger (2023), Dylan Cease (2024), Drew Rasmussen (2025)?

I suppose it’s possible, even likely, that these three players have a lot of things in common. But for the sake of today’s article, what interests me most is that Bellinger in 2023, Cease in 2024, and Rasmussen in 2025 were all at ADPs, which I simply couldn’t understand. Bellinger was coming off a few injury-plagued years and dropped back into the 1990s. Cease was coming off a down year in 2023, where he had a 4.58 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, so he dropped to 100. Rasmussen, like Bellinger in 2023, had back-to-back seasons where he had missed significant time, so he was picked in the mid-to-late 200s.

I understood that everyone was disappointed just now, but those concept prices made no sense to me. These guys can’t possibly be that cheap, can they? So at the beginning of the migration season I started picking them at their discounted prices, thinking I was actually stealing. But soon after, I started thinking a lot: What am I missing? Why aren’t these guys drafted higher? Am I stupid? I’m definitely missing something, right? Clearly I need to reconsider my stance on these guys and figure out what I’m missing.

So I went back to the data and tried to find what I was missing, but I still couldn’t find it. It was maddening. I knew I was wrong about these guys, but I couldn’t figure out why. Spoiler alert: I wasn’t wrong.

What should I have done? I guess I should have gotten over myself and picked the guys. And over. And over. When I look back at my draft lists from those years, it’s clear that my belief in what I saw continued to diminish. I would use 3 or 4 drafts in a row, drafting one at a discount. And then I would start using 5 concepts where I didn’t. I’m all for having rosters with a lot of variations in them so that I don’t pick the same players every time, then five of those guys get injured, and bam, there goes my season.

But during those years I only ended up with Bellinger, Cease and Rasmussen in about a quarter of my designs. And then each guy had a big season and exceeded his draft value by leaps and bounds – just like I thought they would. All the while I sat in the front row watching my opponents get the spoils by picking them because I had passed them so many times. All because I was thinking too much.

And this year I’m doing it all over again Isaac Paredes. I don’t understand why he’s drafted so low. I understand that Houston’s roster situation is complicated. It’s hard to see what spot Paredes will have in the lineup, as there is no opening at 3B, 1B or DH. Add to the list questions the fact that his name is mentioned almost daily in trade talks, and it seems like Paredes is a risky pick. But I just don’t understand why the authors are so afraid. Check out his stats from recent years:

At first glance, his numbers may seem inconsistent, with 31 HR possibly seeming like an outlier. However, a closer look reveals a player consistently performing at a high level in some of the areas that matter: HR, R and RBI.

In 2023, Paredes put all his skills together to reach a .250 BA with 31 HR, 71 R and 98 RBI. But note that in 2025 and 2022 he only reached 438 and 381 PA. Extrapolated to 650 PA, every year looks much more impressive:

The only down season was 2024, but when we look at his performance with the Rays versus his performance with the Cubs after being traded to the North Side of Chicago, things look very different once again:

Considering the split stats, the only number that really looks concerning is Chicago’s 9 HR pace. But it’s no secret that Wrigley didn’t match Paredes’ HR swing, because the LF foul pole (355′) is so much deeper than the one at Tropicana (315′). The other figures look quite Paredes-esque – and valuable.

The consistency suggested by the extrapolated statistics is further supported by the consistency in some of his statistics, which are not particularly impressive:

Paredes doesn’t hit the ball hard despite his ability to hit the ball out of the park. But he takes it as hard as he needs to to get about 30 HR per season. Over the past three years, his maxEV and LA have both been remarkably consistent – ​​the maxEV isn’t difficult, but with an LA of over 20°, 170 km/h is difficult enough. The man knows what he’s trying to do, and he does it well.

I find it hard to believe that the Astros won’t find a place in their lineup for Paredes – the Crawford Boxes are just too perfect for him. But if Houston doesn’t find a spot for him on their own roster, chances are they will (1) trade Paredes or (2) wait until Yordan Alvarez (old man at the knees), Christian Walker (old man oblique) or Jose Altuve (old man) gets hurt. I bet if they don’t plan on playing him, the Astros will trade him. Sure, after the Cubs experiment went wrong, MLB GMs are smart enough to know Paredes isn’t their guy if they have a deep LF.

Now you might be wondering why I’m so sure about this. Let’s say I decided to relax my thinking. I have done the analysis and now I wait for fulfillment, as if the next great season of Paredes will surprise me. May it be so.

See you next week. –A.D.Hamley