European leaders breathed a sigh of relief this week after US President Donald Trump backed away from threats to hit European countries with heavy import duties and related talks about taking Greenland by force.
But analysts say the issue is far from resolved, and unless Trump’s relationship with Europe and the NATO alliance improves, a “major clash” could be triggered.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blasted European leaders with extraordinary criticism in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where world leaders are meeting this week.
“Everyone turned their attention to Greenland, and it is clear that most leaders are simply not sure what to do about it,” he said overnight.
“It seems like everyone is waiting for America to cool down on this issue, hoping it will pass.”
“Instead of taking the lead in defending freedom worldwide, especially when America’s focus shifts elsewhere, Europe seems lost, trying to convince the American president to change. But he will not change,” Zelenskyy said.
Juan Zahir Naranjo Cáceres is an international justice and human rights scholar and lecturer at the University of the Sunshine Coast.
Zelenskyy’s speech “showed a sharp contrast between Trump’s decisiveness and European indecisiveness, noting that Trump was able to act while Europe deliberated endlessly,” Cáceres told SBS News.
“European leaders’ attempts to take Trump down over Greenland look more like urgent damage control than a clear strategic victory.”
Cáceres warned that the US relationship with the European Union is sliding into a more overtly transactional, conflict-prone phase
“If the US follows through on the clear intention of its current national security strategy to reform European politics and support nationalist parties, it could cause a major clash and possibly the end of the alliance.”
Trump’s position on Greenland
Also during his speech at the economic forum in Davos, Trump often confused Greenland and Iceland in his speech, but reiterated his desire for control over Greenland.
“We’re probably not going to get anything unless I decide to use excessive force and power where, quite frankly, we would be unstoppable,” he said.
“But I’m not going to do that… that’s probably the biggest statement I’ve made because people thought I was going to use violence.”
Trump then claimed on Fox News that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and himself had decided to pursue a “total access” framework.
The annual gathering of political and business leaders comes amid rising tensions between the United States and Europe over a range of issues, including Trump’s pledge to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. Source: Getty / Chip Somodevilla
Rutte told CNN that he did not propose any compromise on Danish sovereignty during his meeting with Trump, while he told Reuters he expects results from the new security framework later this year.
He asserted that focusing on Arctic security would not divert resources away from Ukraine.
Rutte sang Trump’s praises, saying: “He has forced us in Europe to act, to face the consequences of having to take more care of our own defense.”
It is unclear what Trump’s access to Greenland means, as he claimed it is “really being negotiated right now.”
After meeting with Rutte, Trump said a deal could be reached that addresses his desire for a ‘Golden Dome’ missile defense system and access to crucial minerals, while blocking Russia and China’s ambitions in the Arctic.
Rutte said that mineral exploitation was not discussed during his meeting with Trump. Specific negotiations on the Arctic island would continue between the United States, Denmark and Greenland itself, he said.
Australian National University strategic policy expert Matthew Sussex told SBS News it was far too early to say the Greenland issue was “resolved”.
“Denmark and NATO have denied that they have details of the ‘plan’ Trump announced. He may have thought he had made a deal with Mark Rutte, but that is not the same as an agreement.”
Jessica Genauer, an associate professor of international relations at Flinders University, said Trump may have irreparably damaged his ties with NATO with his threats to Greenland.
“His proposed use of military force against a fellow NATO member has forever shattered the strong norm of non-use of force by the US against its own security allies.”
“Like trust, norms of behavior take a long time to build and once they are broken, they are incredibly difficult to restore.”
Sussex said that unless there is a major change in the Trump administration’s attitude toward Europe and NATO, “the relationship will continue on a downward trajectory.”
“There are no guarantees that this will happen. Which raises the question of whether European/NATO leaders can afford to treat the current White House as a short-term problem that they can provide a palliative solution to when tensions flare, or ultimately wait.”
What happens now?
Trump’s ambition to wrest sovereignty over Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark has threatened to blow apart the alliance that has underpinned Western security since the end of World War II and reignite a trade war with Europe.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has spoken out decisively about sovereignty being a ‘red line’.
In addition to Denmark, seven other European countries – France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Britain – reiterated the sovereignty clause earlier in January, as well as territorial independence.
In a joint statement they wrote: “Greenland belongs to its people.”
“Arctic security must therefore be achieved collectively, in cooperation with NATO allies, including the United States,” the report said.
US President Donald Trump addressed the World Economic Forum at the Davos Congress Center on Wednesday. Source: Getty / Chip Somodevilla
Emergency talks on transatlantic relations are currently being held in Brussels, but Cáceres said the power of those talks is limited, as evidenced by “the fact that Rutte’s personal intervention with Trump was needed to de-escalate rather than collective European diplomacy.”
Zelenskyy expressed similar sentiments in his speech.
Cáceres said Zelenskyy wants Europe to behave more like an autonomous political actor, “with closer defense cooperation and a strong willingness to shoulder the economic costs rather than letting tariff threats or Washington’s election cycle set the pace.”
Sussex said Zelensky’s criticism “reflects his annoyance with European leaders… [he] seeks a security guarantee for Ukraine that is not dependent on the US. [He’s] understandably frustrated that the US seems more focused on making business deals.”
U.S. allies must prepare for a world in which U.S. military support cannot be guaranteed, Genauer said.
It is a message that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government will pay close attention.
“The US is Australia’s most important security ally in our region,” Genauer said.
“Australia will begin to wonder whether strengthening relations with South Korea, Japan and even strong middle powers like Indonesia or India is a smarter strategy than continuing to rely primarily on our relationship with the US.”
The President of the European Parliament said the European Union will likely resume work on a trade deal with the United States after Trump backed down on his tariff threats.
Parliament decided this week to suspend work on the deal due to Trump’s threats.
However, diplomats told Reuters that EU leaders will reconsider US relations as the Greenland episode has seriously shaken confidence in transatlantic ties.
Governments remain wary of another change of heart by Trump, who is increasingly seen as a bully that Europe will have to stand up to, they said.
The residents of the Greenland capital Nuuk are also on their guard.
“It’s all very confusing,” says retiree Jesper Muller.
“One hour we’re, well, almost at war. The next hour everything is fine and beautiful, and I think it’s very difficult to imagine building anything on it.’
— With additional reporting by Reuters
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