Yes, you have to time the markets! Shankar Sharma explains when

Conventional wisdom tells investors to refrain from timing the markets, but there are exceptions to the rules. One of those exceptions is when markets enter a strong macro cycle, says GQuant FinXray founder Shankar Sharma. He goes on to say that this was not only critical, but essential for investing.“No matter how well you choose stocks, remember one thing: most of your returns will be determined by the market’s macro cycle. Therefore, the timing of the macro cycle is not only critical but essential,” Sharma said in a tweet.

He said no investor made money between 2014 and 2020, a period when he said there was no macroeconomic tailwind, while most of the gains came in the past four to five years. “(For example, between 2014 and 2020, no one made much money. Small caps were a disaster. GDP growth was terrible. Corporate profits were abysmal. For all investors, regardless of size, 90% of their current portfolio only came in in the last four to five years.) Think about this,” Shrama said.

Nifty has delivered multibagger returns of 102% in the last five years, while BSE Sensex has returned 94% in the same period, according to Trendlyne data.

In the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap 100’s return over the past five years stands at 217%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 closed at 189% on Friday, November 21.

There were fewer write-downs in the recently concluded earnings season.

“After Q2FY26, Nifty observed 50 marginal revisions (as per consensus estimate) as total net profit for FY26E/FY27E/FY28E was reduced by 0.7% and increased by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively,” Choice Broking said in a note.

Bigger upgrades (in consensus net profit estimates) were seen in autos due to improved auto sales volume growth, along with capital goods due to better private investment expectations in the second half of FY26. The upward trend in telecommunications is led by wireless ARPU growth driven by premiumization, and financial services was driven by higher credit growth and stabilizing NIM margin.Downgrades are observed for building materials due to lower realization and lower profitability and for energy due to lower sales growth. Metals, energy and transport are also on the agenda.

For metals, weaker realization and lower domestic demand were the biggest downfalls, while for electricity, lower energy demand and weaker margins were spoilsports. On the transportation side, one-time currency losses were the culprits, this brokerage added.

Motilal Oswal in its review note said the Nifty-500 universe delivered healthy double-digit earnings growth in Q2’26, the highest
in five quarters, despite geopolitical headwinds and weak consumption trends. “The Nifty-500 universe’s total profits rose 15% YoY. Ex-Financials reported total profits rose 20% YoY. Ex-Metals and O&G, the
Total profits grew by 9% year-on-year,” MOFSL said.

Also read: Shankar Sharma says India, US with lowest exposure in 30 years, remains bearish on indices

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)