XRPL Metrics Drop 50-80%: Analyst Explains Why and Could It Hurt XRP Price

Analysts say public XRPL metrics are down 50-80%, but private institutional flows may explain the apparent decline.

XRP Ledger activity has fallen sharply, with public statistics showing active users, payment volumes and sender accounts falling between 50% and 80% within weeks, according to market watcher Arthur.

The data has sparked debate over whether the network is weakening or simply shifting activity away from public dashboards after a new institutional trading feature went live.

Public XRPL metrics fall

In a thread posted to X on February 23, Arthur said said active users with tags fell from over 200,000 to around 38,000, while payment volume dropped from over 2.5 billion to around 80 million XRP. Additionally, the number of unique sending accounts dropped from over 40,000 to around 3,000, with the analyst describing the numbers as “poor” but arguing that they may not reflect true network demand.

He linked the decline to the Feb. 18 activation of XLS-81, an authorized decentralized exchange system that allows regulated entities to trade within limited pools. Transactions routed through these channels will not appear on public trackers. Moreover, he suggested that the peak in activity at the end of 2025 came from retail flows visible in the chain, while institutional flows could now move privately.

At the same time, the XRP lawyer pleads criticized viral price predictions, such as a February 22 post from trader CryptoBull2020 predicting that XRP could reach $15 in March and $70 in May. He argued that liquidity and macro conditions are more important than optimism on social media.

The asset was trading around $1.39 at the time of writing, down about 2% in the last 24 hours, 5% in seven days and 27% in the last month. Over the past year it has fallen by more than 46% and is now more than 60% below the July 2025 peak of $3.65.

By comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) has been largely on a sideways move lately, according to pseudonymous analyst Darkfost, which they say has limited direction on altcoins.

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Darkfost too reported that more than 31 million XRP entered wallets on Binance in a single day, largely from large holders. They estimate that the transfers could represent about $45 million in potential selling pressure if the funds reach the market.

Loss data and valuation metrics offer mixed signals

A recent report from Santiment adds longer-term context, stating that XRP recorded its largest realized loss spike since 2022, after falling from around $3.60 to almost $1.10 earlier this month. The company noted that similar spikes previously occurred just before a 114% price increase within eight months, although it did not predict this pattern would repeat.

In another analysis, Santiment compared MVRV ratios to rank Ethereum as the most undervalued major crypto at -14.3%, followed by Bitcoin at -6.9% and XRP at -4.1%. The metric measures whether holders are making a profit or loss relative to their cost base.